Construction and Utility of a General-conversion Probability Model for Simulation of Built-up area Spatial Expanding in Nanchang City of China

  • 1. College of Environmental and Urban Sciences, Shenzhen Graduate School of Peking University, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518055;
    2. Department of Ecology, College of Environmental science, Peking University, Beijing, 100871

Received date: 2006-01-08

  Revised date: 2006-07-16

  Online published: 2007-07-20


In the traditional research about the spatial dynamic modeling of urban built-up area,there are some unavoidable deficiencies derived from the limited image datasets for a certain time interval and the subjectivity in the determination of transitional threshold.In order to solve the aforementioned problems,the author established a general-conversion probability model which can consider the transition of all the pixels and improve the existing urban landscape dynamics models.In the case study of Nanchang City in Jiangxi Province,the author established a general transition probability model and conducted related dynamic modeling by taking into consideration of 4 urban landscape pattern factors including the urbanization gradient of non-urban pixel,the distance to the closest built-up patch,the size of the closest built-up patch,and the neighborhood level of peripheral pixel,and 2 socio-economic and natural factors including road and topography,which all together can strongly control the urbanization process in the region.The simulation result indicates that this model is more precise compared to the traditional models.It can simulate the expansion of urban built-up areas of Nanchang perfectly,and it is an important methodology supplementary of the research about the current spatial dynamics modeling of urban landscape.

Cite this article

ZENG Hui, CHU Yan-Ling, LI Shu-Juan . Construction and Utility of a General-conversion Probability Model for Simulation of Built-up area Spatial Expanding in Nanchang City of China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2007 , 27(4) : 473 -479 . DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2007.04.473


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