Quantitative Effects Assessments of Expo ′99 Kunming:Model of Background Trend Line

  • 1. School of Tourism and Hotel Management, South China Uni.of Technology, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510006;
    2. Center for Tourism Planning & Research, SUN Yat-Sen Uni., Guangzhou, Guangdong 510275

Received date: 2006-05-29

  Revised date: 2006-05-17

  Online published: 2007-05-20


In the field of event impacts assessment(EIA),there are many quantitative methods given in western event and event tourism existing literatures.Like the general EIA method,the classical method assessing the economic effects of World Fairs(Expo) is "cost-benefit analysis",and the basic technique is "input-output method" or called "inter-industrial relations analysis". These methods are usually not easy to calculate because the financial statistic data are always imperfect and most indices of effects are difficult to quantitatively define.Furthermore,it is more difficult to extract the event′s effects from multi-factors that affect the destination′s development just as to extract the tourism′s impacts alone from multi-factors affecting the changes of economies,environments and societies.Taking the 14th International Horticulture Exposition in Kunming 1999(i.e.Expo′99 Kunming) as an one-time mega-event case,the paper deals with the problem of imperfect financial data and the difficult extraction of event′s impacts from multi-factors of socio-economic development using the method of Background Trend Line Model(BTLM) presented by SUN Gen-Nian.With SPSS and Excel packages,the paper calculates the affected values, the contribution values and corresponding ratios of the Expo to Kunming′s tourism industry and GDP.Resulted from the quantitative analyses,the conclusions are that the Expo′99 Kunming made the position of its tourism industry in the national economy development,the ratios of the tourism added values to GDP and the tierary industry’s added value improved in 1999,the hosted year of the Expo. But after the Expo ended,these increasing trends stopped,all indices reduced from 2000 and fluctuated from 2001,and dropped down acutely due to SARS in the year 2003.Thus the Expo is just an irregular event and it has not influenced the long-time total pulsating trend of Kunming′s tourism industry and its position in the national economy.

Cite this article

DAI Guang-Quan, BAO Ji-Gang . Quantitative Effects Assessments of Expo ′99 Kunming:Model of Background Trend Line[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2007 , 27(3) : 426 -433 . DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2007.03.426


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