RESPONSES OF GLACIER AND GLACIAL RUNOFF TO CLIMATIC CHANGE——A model in simulating the Glacier No.1 in headwaters of the Urumqi River

Expand
  • Lanzhou Institute of Glaciology and Geocryology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000

Received date: 1995-10-26

  Revised date: 1995-11-25

  Online published: 1997-01-20

Abstract

This paper presents a model that simulates processes on responses of Glacier No.1 in headwaters of the Urumqi River to various future climatic scenarios with a glacier dynamic model. The results indicate that the Glacier No.1 in headwaters of the Urumqi River will continue to retreat if current climatic conditions prevail, until it reaches a steady state of 1600 m in length after 700 to 800 years. If the air temperature were to rise 1℃, the glacier would degenerate and become a hanging glacier with a length of 300 m after 700 to 800 years. Due to glacier degeneration, cooling function of the glacier would decrease so that the increase of the air temperature in glaciated area would be higher than that in non glaciated areas. The current glacier runoff is in higher value in comparison with the runoff in the equilibrium state under the current climatic conditions. If the air temperature would continue to rise, hovewer, the runoff of the glacier would still increase and reach a new peak but after then decrease rapidly.

Cite this article

Ye Baisheng, Chen Kegong, Shi Yafeng . RESPONSES OF GLACIER AND GLACIAL RUNOFF TO CLIMATIC CHANGE——A model in simulating the Glacier No.1 in headwaters of the Urumqi River[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 1997 , 17(1) : 32 -40 . DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.1997.01.32

References

[1] Huang Maohuan.The movement mechanisms of the Urumqi Glacier No.1,Tian shan Mts.China.Annals of Glaciology. 1992,(16):39-44.
[2] 佩特森.冰川物理学.张祥松等译.北京:科学出版社,1987.
[3] 王文浚,莫承略,等.冰川消融及其对乌鲁木齐河的补给作用.见:天山乌鲁木齐冰川与水文研究.北京:科学出版社,1965.88-97.
[4] 叶佰生,陈克恭,等.乌鲁木齐河源冰川的消融强度函数.冰川冻土,1996.(待刊).
[5] Конова лов ВГ. Таяиие и сток следников в ба ссейна х рек Срей Азии. Л., Гидрмете сиздат.1985.
[6] 赖祖铭.用冰川区水量平衡模型估计气候变化对冰川水资源影响的初步研究.水科学进展,1990,1(1):58-64.
[7] 尤根祥.乌鲁木齐河源1号和2号冰川图.西安:西安地图出版社,1988.
[8] 曹梅盛,迈耶M F.稳定状态下冰川纵向断面计算以天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川为例.冰川冻土.1987,9(2):131-137.
Outlines

/