Industry Conversion Simulation Analysis of Resources-exhausted Mining City Based on The System Dynamics: Taking Liaoyuan City of Jilin Province as Example
Received date: 2011-10-18
Request revised date: 2012-05-16
Online published: 2012-05-20
Copyright
With the gradual depletion of mineral resources, the economy of resources-exhausted mining city is facing many difficulties, and industrial transformation has been imminent. The industrial transformation of Liaoyuan City has achieved remarkable progress, known as the “Liaoyuan sample”. This article establishes the SD model of economic system of Liaoyuan City through analyzing the system structure of the in-depth analysis based on the system dynamics method, and the CD production function is embedded into the model. We conductes the model based on the data of Liaoyuan from 2005 to 2010, a plurality of simulation curves of economic system of Liaoyuan City in 2005-2030 are derived, and the results show that: coal industry production value of Liaoyuan City is reduced to 0 because coal resource would completely dry up in 2027, which however exerts limited perturbation over the economy. Many economic indicators are showing rapid upward trend, including GDP, the output value of the second industry, the output value of the third industry, the output value of continuous industry, the output value of other’s industry. Further, other’s indexes such as the per capita GDP will also show an increasing tendency, the economy of Liaoyuan will present an overall prosperity.
LU Wan-he , LIU Ji-sheng , NA Wei . Industry Conversion Simulation Analysis of Resources-exhausted Mining City Based on The System Dynamics: Taking Liaoyuan City of Jilin Province as Example[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2012 , 32(5) : 577 -583 . DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.05.577
Fig.1 Tree model of population图1 人口入树模型 |
Fig.2 Tree model of resources industry图2 资源产业入树模型 |
Fig.3 Tree model of the ith continuous industry图3 第i个接续产业入树模型 |
Fig.4 Tree model of other industries图4 其它工业产业入树模型 |
Fig.5 Simulation of population quantity图5 人口数量仿真曲线 |
Fig.6 Simulation of full employment图6 全部就业人数仿真曲线 |
Fig.7 Simulation of the actual value of coal industry图7 煤炭产业实际产值仿真曲线 |
Fig.8 Simulation of investment of coal industry图8 煤炭产业投资额仿真曲线 |
Fig.9 Simulation of production value of continuous industry in Liaoyuan City图9 辽源市各接续产业产值仿真曲线 |
Fig.10 Simulation of GDP in Liaoyuan City图 10 辽源市GDP仿真曲线 |
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
[1] |
|
[2] |
|
[3] |
|
[4] |
|
[5] |
|
[6] |
|
[7] |
|
[8] |
|
[9] |
|
[10] |
|
[11] |
|
[12] |
|
[13] |
|
[14] |
(日本)通产省资源能源厅石炭部.コ—ル·ノ—ト[M].东京:资源产业新闻社,1995.
|
[15] |
|
[16] |
|
[17] |
|
[18] |
|
[19] |
|
[20] |
|
[21] |
|
[22] |
|
[23] |
|
[24] |
|
[25] |
|
[26] |
|
[27] |
辽源市统计局.辽源统计年鉴2005~2010[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 2005~2010.
|
[28] |
辽源市国家税务局. 吉林辽源矿业(集团)有限责任公司集团[EB/OL]. 2010-4-30.
|
[29] |
|
/
〈 |
|
〉 |