Spatial Econometric Analysis of The Rank-size Rule for Urban System: A Case of Prefectural-level cities in China’s Middle Area
Received date: 2011-08-14
Revised date: 2012-01-12
Online published: 2012-06-19
A remarkable empirical regularity is that the city size distribution in many countries is well approximated to a Pareto distribution. This claim is so widely accepted that it has gained the status of a law, Zipf’s Law, or a rule, the Rank-size Rule. It has also inspired extensive researches mainly in the fields of economic geography and regional science. The urbanization process has mainly taken place since 1978 with significant processes of industrialization and economic growth in China. Many researchers have studied the characteristics of city scale distribution in different regions according to Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). The spatial econometric analysis of urban system is still scarce. This article adopts spatial econometric models to analyze the Rank-size Rule and evolution mechanisms of urban system in China’s middle area through population data of prefectural-level cities from 1985 to 2009. Firstly, cross-sectional distribution of urban population is analyzed by means of nonparametric estimations of density functions. Evolution of the shape of urabn population cross-sectional distribution shows the existence of convergence trends. Secondly, the linear regression equation is estimated by OLS. Then spatial autoregressive model and spatial error model are estimated. The results show that the estimation over time of the q parameter displays an increasing trend from 1985-1990, then decrease until 1995, from which it starts to augment. Zipf’s exponent estimated by spatial lag model is smaller than OLS. It indicates that the size distribution of urban system is more convergent because of significant spatial dependence between cities. Thirdly, we explore the mechnism between the spatial dependence and city size distribution. Spatial interaction caused by the agglemation of production factors, industrial adjustment and innovation diffusion provides the basis of spatial dependence. It affects the evolution of urban system and makes urban size distribution more convergent. Finally, the article concludes with a summary of key findings and puts forward some recommendations.
CHENG Kai-ming, ZHUANG Yan-jie . Spatial Econometric Analysis of The Rank-size Rule for Urban System: A Case of Prefectural-level cities in China’s Middle Area[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2012 , 32(8) : 903 -912 . DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.08.903
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