Flood Simulation Study of Typhoon Storm Surge Based on Scenarios in Shanghai
Received date: 2012-04-05
Request revised date: 2012-06-04
Online published: 2013-01-20
Copyright
Storm surges from tropical cyclones, as one of the most devastating natural hazards in Shanghai, have caused considerable personal injury and property damage in the history. A scenario-based study that investigated the storm induced flood potentials in Shanghai coastal area was conducted. Based on the probability analysis for several gauge stations, the findings show that due to the high standard seawall, it is less likely to occur overtopping inundation in the short term. Therefore, two vulnerable sections of seawall and six kinds of storm surge barrier bursts scenarios were built. Comparing the local land elevation with the flood levels of different return periods, flood scenarios with return periods of 20, 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1000 years were designed to cover the probable situations. The shape of the flow hydrographs at the boundary gauging stations for various return periods was derived based on 9711 typhoon induced flood event where hourly flow boundary conditions were available. To reduce the computational costs of the simulation, the design flood scenarios were represented with 20 hours tidal hydrographs, which include two rising phases and two falling limbs. The topographic contours (0.5 m intervals) of Shanghai were interpolated to generate a DEM with a grid cell resolution of 50 m. These provided the flow and topographic boundary conditions for the model simulations. A well-established 2D flood numerical model (FloodMap) was used to predict the flood dynamics and inundation process. Subsequent analysis using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) was employed to illustrate the spatial and temporal distribution of flood-prone areas under different scenarios. The results indicated that, 1) maximum inundation depths were reached in all simulations at approximately the second to third hour, decreasing afterwards as the stage recedes. 2) Inundation area for each scenario increased throughout the simulation, even during the receding limb of the hydrograph. 3) The maximum inundation extents and depths increased with the increasing return periods. 4) Flooding from levee breach only caused local inundation. It can be concluded that the impact of storm flooding was not particularly high in Shanghai at present situation with the protection of high standard dike systems. However, extreme events caused by global climate change should be considered in future studies.
Key words: scenario; typhoon storm surge; inundation; Shanghai
YIN Jie , YIN Zhan-e , YU Da-peng , XU Shi-yuan . Flood Simulation Study of Typhoon Storm Surge Based on Scenarios in Shanghai[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2013 , 33(1) : 110 -115 . DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.01.110
Table 1 Probability analysis for tide-frequency of coastal gauge stations of Shanghai (m)表1 上海沿海各潮位站潮位–频率分析(m) |
潮位站 | 重现期(a) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
20 | 50 | 100 | 200 | 500 | 1000 | |
外高桥 | 5.69 | 5.98 | 6.21 | 6.43 | 6.73 | 6.95 |
芦潮港 | 5.37 | 5.62 | 5.80 | 5.99 | 6.23 | 6.42 |
金山咀 | 6.07 | 6.37 | 6.60 | 6.83 | 7.13 | 7.35 |
三甲港 | 5.54 | 5.83 | 6.07 | 6.30 | 6.60 | 6.82 |
马家港 | 5.67 | 5.94 | 6.15 | 6.36 | 6.63 | 6.84 |
堡镇 | 5.70 | 5.97 | 6.18 | 6.39 | 6.66 | 6.86 |
Fig. 1 Locations of coastal seawalls and gauge stations in Shanghai图1 上海沿海海塘与潮位站分布 |
Fig.2 Time series of maximum inundated areas and depth obtained from simulations for different scenarios图2 各重现期最大淹没深度和淹没面积时间序列 |
Table 2 Maximum inundation areas and depths of typhoon storm tide for different scenarios表2 各重现期台风风暴潮溃堤最大淹没面积和深度 |
重现期 (a) | 竹园污水排放口 | 小泐港 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
最大淹没 面积(km2) | 最大淹没 深度(m) | 最大淹没 面积(km2) | 最大淹没 深度(m) | |
20 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 0.65 | 1.58 |
50 | 0.44 | 0.32 | 0.74 | 1.82 |
100 | 0.70 | 0.58 | 0.79 | 1.99 |
200 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.92 | 2.17 |
500 | 1.13 | 1.10 | 1.04 | 2.39 |
1000 | 1.55 | 1.37 | 1.18 | 2.57 |
Fig. 3 Maximum inundation extents and depths of typhoon storm tide for different scenarios图3 各重现期台风风暴潮溃堤淹没情况 |
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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