With the rapid economic development, land demands of different stakeholders are increasing the pressure on the limited land resources on the urban fringe, resulting in fast farmland loss. Based on the TM data in the years 1990 and 2000, combined with social-economical statistic data from 1978 to 2002, this paper explored the spatial and temporal characteristics of farmland change and its driving forces in Shunyi District, Beijing Municipality, by means of spatial analysis, GIS-based buffer analysis and mathematical statistics method. It was found that fast loss of farmland take place after the 1978. From 1978 to 2002, 38% of the farmland area in Shunyi was lost, which were mainly converted to built-up land (57%) and ecological land (43%), and driven by land demands for urbanization and better environment. Meanwhile, agricultural land use structure changed substantially due to the expansion of urban land and economic force/market change. For example, in 2002, the sowing area of food grain crops decreased by 35.12%, while the area of vegetable and orchard increased by 3 times compared to that in 1991. This change increased income of farmers, but led to a problem of food insecurity. Three major factors contributed to these land use changes. The first is the great gap of benefits among industrial and agricultural land use in Shunyi District. The second the investment of fixed asset, e.g., the investment to real estate increased 5 times from 1998 to 2003, while that to agriculture decreased to 1/29 at corresponding time. The third is development of transportation infrastructure to meet the need of its industrialization and urbanization. The quick development of villa and other residential land use with low plot ratio caused loss of fertile farmland and other ecological land. Additionally, this paper proved that the combination of Principal Component Analysis and Stepwise Regression was an effective means to discover driving factors of farmland loss. The former was used to distinguish main factors in each category, and the latter was used to give a rational explanation of land use change.
YU Bo-Hua, LU Chang-He
. Spatio-temporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of Farmland Change on Urban Fringe: A Case Study of Shunyi District, Beijing Municipality[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2008
, 28(3)
: 348
-353
.
DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2008.03.348
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