Wang Fubo, Wang Xiaofang, Luo Wanyun, Lu Keji
Around 2011, the growth rate of China’s economy slowed down, and the fundamentals of the Chinese economy underwent substantial changes. Economic development began to enter a new normal. With the increasingly acute drawbacks of the factor driven economic development model, relying on innovation-driven to shape new driving forces and advantages for development, and achieving the transformation of new and old driving forces for economic growth, has become the key for China to break the shackles of factors and achieve high-quality economic development. As an important bearing space for China to shape new development advantages, cities have already become an important position of innovation-driven development strategy. The improvement of urban innovation-driven level provides a powerful source of power for achieving the goal of Chinese path to modernization. This article is based on the theory of innovation value chain, with technological innovation as the core to construct an urban innovation-driven system. The SBM model of unexpected output super efficiency is used to measure the input-output efficiency of the transformation and diffusion stage of scientific and technological achievements in the urban innovation-driven system, indirectly characterizing the level of urban innovation-driven, identify the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of innovation-driven level in 284 prefecture level and above cities in China from 2003 to 2017 using the Global Moran’s I and hot spot analysis method, and further analyze the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of factors influencing urban innovation-driven level using the spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression model (GTWR model).The results show that: 1) The overall innovation-driven level of Chinese cities showed a slow growth trend from 2003 to 2017, with an average annual growth rate of 1.32%, fluctuating from 0.307 to 0.369, showing a clear two-stage characteristic. The growth momentum of innovation-driven levels in north China, northeast China, and northwest China is insufficient. The insufficient ability to transform and diffuse scientific and technological achievements, as well as the enormous pressure on carbon reduction, have become the main reasons for the slow growth of innovation-driven level in Chinese cities. 2) The spatial distribution pattern of urban innovation-driven levels has evolved from “high in the west and low in the east” to “high in the south and low in the north”. Correspondingly, the spatial distribution pattern of urban innovation-driven cold and hot spots has evolved from “cold in the east and hot in the west” to “hot in the south and cold in the north”. The spatial distribution of urban innovation-driven growth clusters exhibits a clear “core-edge” feature, which is highly correlated with the spatial distribution of urban clusters, and most provincial capitals/municipalities are regional growth poles. 3) The spatiotemporal evolution of China’s urban innovation-driven level from 2003 to 2017 is the result of a combination of factors, mainly driven by urban affluence and government intervention tendency in the early period, and relying on urban affluence and industrial development level in the later period. In addition, the effect, action intensity and fluctuation direction of each factor on level of urban innovation-driven vary in different regions and periods.