SUN Gen-nian, ZHOU Rui-na, MA Li-jun, WANG Tai-ran
According to the Tourism Background Trend-line Theory and monthly index anomaly,this article quantitatively analyzes the impacts of the five important events on the Chinese provincial Inbound Tourism in 2008.The following findings are gained: 1) under the influence of the five major events,24 provinces’ tourism has shown a negative growth.Among them,some provinces such as Guangdong and Sichuan,Beijing and Zhejiang decreased as many as 676×103-2 945×103 tourists while Shandong,Hainan,Qinghai,Chongqing,Anhui and Jilin decreased less than 50×103 tourists.As to the tourists loss rate,Sichuan,Tibet,Gansu and Qinghai are highest,from 50.0% to 76.7%,while Anhui,Jilin,Shanxi,Heilongjiang,Tianjin and Ningxia are lowest(1.6%-4.6%).2) The five events have various influences on each province because of their different characters,occurring time and last-periods.Financial crisis has resulted in 12.55×106 tourists’ decrease in total and the earthquake in Wenchuan has decreased 1.78×106 tourists.Tibetan separatist incidents also decreased 1.16×106 tourists while the Snow storm in the southern China decreased 0.42×106 tourists.3) The five events have influenced different areas in China.Snow storm mainly affected some provinces in the southern China and Tibetan separatist incidents have more effects on the Tibet,Beijing and Shanghai.The earthquake in Wenchuan affected the most parts of China,especially on Sichuan province;During Beijing Olympic Game,most provinces attracted less inbound tourists;financial crisis has lasted for a long time,which affected all the 31 provinces in varying degrees while the eastern coastal provinces of China suffered most seriously.According to the tourism background trend line theory,this paper quantitatively analysizes the influences of the five important events on Chinese provincial Inbound Tourism in 2008.
