Analysis of the Granger Causality Between the Scouring and Silting and the Coefficient of Incoming Sediments of the Lancang River

Expand
  • Faculty of Resources and Environment, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610066

Received date: 2003-10-28

  Revised date: 2004-01-07

  Online published: 2004-11-20

Abstract

The Lanchang-Meikon River is an important international river. In recent years, the basin of this river has gradually become the region where some countries or regioanl groups, located along both of its banks, have stressed research and development and invested a lot. The river is one of the most active factors in the environment of physical geography of the Lanchang River basin. Water flow and its bedload have important impact on shipment development, construction of water power stations, and land use. There Thus, a placement of stress on research of the impact of changes in the natural incoming sediments on the scouring and silting changes of the Lanchang River will provide an important basis for its terrace development. Using Granger causality model, the ADF time series stability test technique, and the available on-site collected data within a period of 23 years, this study conducts an analysis of whether or not changes in the incoming sediments of the Lanchang River will lead to scouring and silting changes. This study finds that: (1) the variable of the yearly coefficients of incoming sediments of the Lanchang River is a non-stability time series process; but in the contrary, the variable of the yearly scouring and silting changes is a stability one; (2) there are no Granger causal relations, or predictive relations, found from the changes in the incoming sediments of the Lanchang River (Yunjinghong Section) to those in the scouring and silting. Thus, an increase (or decrease) in the coefficient of incoming sediments of the Lanchang River will uncertainly lead to an increase in the section silting (or an increase in the section scouring). This does not accord with the suggstion in the past research. Thus, we suggest that the former study's suggestion may be discussible.

Cite this article

ZOU Gao-Lu, LUO Huai-Liang . Analysis of the Granger Causality Between the Scouring and Silting and the Coefficient of Incoming Sediments of the Lancang River[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2004 , 24(6) : 698 -703 . DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2004.06.698

References

[1] 何大明. 澜昌江-湄公河水文特征分析[J]. 云南地理环境研究,1995,7(1):58~74.
[2] 尤联元. 澜沧江流域河流泥沙发展趋势初步研究[J]. 地理学报,1999,54(增刊):93~100.
[3] 尤联元. 澜沧江河道冲淤变化特征及发展趋势[J]. 地理研究, 2001,20(2):178~183.
[4] 黄英. 澜沧江云南段河流输沙及其变化规律探讨[J]. 人民长江,1996,27(1):33~25.
[5] P C B Phillips.Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics [J]. Journal of Econometrics, 1986, 33(3): 311-340.
[6] C W J Granger. Investing Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods [J] Econometrica, 1969, 37(3): 424-438.
[7] W A Fuller. Introduction to Statistical Time Series [M]. New York: John Wiley, 1976. 373.
[8] D A Dickey,W A Fuller. Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root [J]. Journal of American Statistical Association, 1979, 74(386): 427-431.
[9] H D Hamilton. Time Series Analysis [M]. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994. 501.
Outlines

/