Zhang Yali, Chen Yangyang, Xiang Benwu
Using the panel data of 41 prefecture-level and above cities in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomeration from 2010 to 2021, the spatio-temporal pattern of the level of integrated urban-rural development in the study area is analyzed by constructing a multidimensional comprehensive evaluation system, and the influencing factors are resolved by using a Geodetector model. The results show that: first, the overall integrated urban-rural development level of the YRD urban agglomeration shows a steadily increasing trend, rising from 0.499 7 in 2010 and 0.5729 in 2015 to 0.6488 in 2021, with an average growth rate of 2.40%. The average annual growth rate of integrated urban-rural develomment level in three provinces and one municipality is Anhui, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu in descending order, and the highly and medium-highly integrated areas are increasing with time. Second, regarding the overall characteristics of the evolution of spatial and temporal patterns, the urban-rural integration level within the YRD city cluster exhibits significant spatial disparities. High-value and medium-high-value areas are primarily concentrated in the central part of the cluster, while medium-value areas are adjacent to these zones, forming a contiguous distribution. In contrast, most of the western areas, except for Hefei, are characterized by lower levels of integration. Third, in terms of the sub-dimensional characteristics of the evolution of spatial and temporal patterns, the urban-rural integration level of the YRD city cluster in all sub-dimensions shows an upward trend. Among them, the average annual growth rate of the public service equalization index is low, only 1.19%, the average annual growth rate of the per capita income convergence index is 1.73%, the average annual growth rate of the ecological environment integration index is 2.54%, and the integration index of infrastructure has the fastest growth rate of the four sub-dimensions, with an average annual growth rate of 3.58%, which is also evident in the spatial pattern of differentiation. Fourth, from the detection results of the influencing factors, the level of financial support for agriculture, the level of urbanization, the level of economic development, the advanced industrial structure, and the degree of openness to the outside world are the important factors driving the integrated urban-rural development of the YRD urban agglomeration. Fifth, from the results of the interaction detection of the influencing factors, the average q-value of the interaction of each influencing factor is above 0.5, i.e., the explanatory strength of the interaction of the two factors is greater than that of the single factor, and the spatial and temporal differentiation of the integrated urban-rural development of the YRD urban agglomeration is the result of the joint action of multiple influencing factors.