地理科学 ›› 1991, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (3): 269-278.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.1991.03.269

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

厄尼诺及其地理规律

朱其文, 章少卿   

  1. 吉林省气象科学研究所, 长春
  • 出版日期:1991-05-20 发布日期:1991-05-20
  • 基金资助:
    国家气象局长期预报课题组资助

EL-NINO AND ITS GEOGRAPHICAL LAW

Zhu Qiwen, Zhang Shaoqing   

  1. Meteorological Research Institute of Jilin Province, Changchun
  • Online:1991-05-20 Published:1991-05-20

摘要: 本文用Ansell方法确定的10个厄尼诺年和6个反厄尼诺年分别计算了这两组年份前年、同年、次年各月,季的太平洋海温正距平和北半球500hPa高度负距平出现的概率。并用北半球500hPa高度场选取因子建立了秋季厄尼诺指数的预报方程,效果较好。

Abstract: In this paper,the probabilities of both the positive departure of sea surface temperature(SST)at the Pacific Ocean and the negative geopotential departure in 500 hPa of the Northern Hemisphere in month and season from last to next year were computed for ten E1-Nio years and six anti-El-Niño years,which were defined by Ansell.It is evident that the main characteristics of the SST and the geopotential height in each season during the same period are contrary between El-Niño year and anti-El-Niño year.The life cycle for either El-Niño or anti-El-Niño can be divided into seven stages,i.e.portent,occurrence,development, prosperity,stability,weakness and extinction stages.There exists an opposite PNA teleconnection pattern in 500 hPa between them on the evolution of the circulation type,and there is the factor of change toward the opposite direction as they are happened.The representative season and district of El-Niño were defined objectively.The spectral analysis for the indexes of both El-Niño and PNA shows that the most obvious evidence is 42-month periodic variation,the index of El-Niño is backward for 4.15 months compared with that of PNA.On the other hand,the predictive equation for the El-Niño index in autumn is established by these predictors selected by the 500 hPa geopotential height of the Northern Hemisphere.The effect is satisfactory.