地理科学

地理科学 ›› 1997, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (1): 32-40.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.1997.01.32

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

冰川及其径流对气候变化响应过程的模拟模型——以乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川为例

叶佰生, 陈克恭, 施雅风   

  1. 中国科学院兰州冰川冻土研究所, 兰州730000
  • 收稿日期:1995-10-26 修回日期:1995-11-25 出版日期:1997-01-20 发布日期:1997-01-20
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金

RESPONSES OF GLACIER AND GLACIAL RUNOFF TO CLIMATIC CHANGE——A model in simulating the Glacier No.1 in headwaters of the Urumqi River

Ye Baisheng, Chen Kegong, Shi Yafeng   

  1. Lanzhou Institute of Glaciology and Geocryology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000
  • Received:1995-10-26 Revised:1995-11-25 Online:1997-01-20 Published:1997-01-20

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21

摘要： 用冰川动力模型对乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川东支进行模拟计算结果表明:1号冰川东支在维持目前的气候变化水平下还将继续退缩到约1600m长度;若气温升高1℃,1号冰川将退缩为约只有300m长的悬冰川。随着冰川退缩,冰川冷却作用减弱,冰川区的升温将高于非冰川区。1号冰川目前的冰川径流是处在一个高值期(相对于它的稳定状态),若气候继续变暖,冰川径流还将继续增大,达到一峰值后将迅速减小。

Abstract: This paper presents a model that simulates processes on responses of Glacier No.1 in headwaters of the Urumqi River to various future climatic scenarios with a glacier dynamic model. The results indicate that the Glacier No.1 in headwaters of the Urumqi River will continue to retreat if current climatic conditions prevail, until it reaches a steady state of 1600 m in length after 700 to 800 years. If the air temperature were to rise 1℃, the glacier would degenerate and become a hanging glacier with a length of 300 m after 700 to 800 years. Due to glacier degeneration, cooling function of the glacier would decrease so that the increase of the air temperature in glaciated area would be higher than that in non glaciated areas. The current glacier runoff is in higher value in comparison with the runoff in the equilibrium state under the current climatic conditions. If the air temperature would continue to rise, hovewer, the runoff of the glacier would still increase and reach a new peak but after then decrease rapidly.