地理科学 ›› 2000, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (1): 56-60.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2000.01.56

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候波动对莱州湾地区水资源及极端旱涝事件的影响

邓慧平1, 李爱贞2, 刘厚风2, 陈淑芬2, 张雪芹2   

  1. 1. 安徽师范大学地理系 安徽芜湖241000;
    2. 山东师范大学地理系 山东济南250014
  • 收稿日期:1998-11-20 修回日期:1999-06-09 出版日期:2000-01-20 发布日期:2000-01-20
  • 基金资助:
    “八五”国家重点科技攻关《海水入侵防治试验研究》(85-806-03);山东省科学基金《气候变化对莱洲湾地区水资源及旱涝事件影响》(Y98E01072)

Impacts of Climate Fluctuations on Water Resources and Extremes in the Laizhou Bay Area

DENG Hui-ping1, LI Ai-zhen2, LIU Hou-feng2, CHEN Shu-fen2, ZHANG Xue-qin 2   

  1. 1. Departement of Geography, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu Anhui 24100;
    2. Department of Geography, Shandong Normal University, Jinan Shandong 250014
  • Received:1998-11-20 Revised:1999-06-09 Online:2000-01-20 Published:2000-01-20

摘要: 通过对莱州湾地区1960~1993年气候波动对水资源及极端旱涝事件的影响分析,可以看出该地区水资源对气候波动很敏感。当降水增加10%,全区水资源总量可增加22%;若降水减少10%,全区水资源总量则减少23%。在气候处于多雨时期,极端雨涝频率远高于少雨时期;在气候处于少雨时期,极端干旱频率远高于多雨时期。同时还分析了未来气候变化对莱州湾地区水资源的可能影响。

Abstract: The Laizhou Bay area is located in the north coastal zone of Shandong Province, China. In order to investigate the sensibility of water resources and extremes to climate fluctuations, the annual regional precipitation series (1960-1993) is divided into more precipitation and less precipitation periods equally at the point of 1976. In the wet period (1960-1976), average precipitation is 12% more than the normal. In the dry period (1977-1993), average annual precipitation is 12% less than the normal. In the wet period, regional total water resources is 26% more than the normal, while in the dry period, regional total water resources is about 27% less than the normal. Ten percent increase in precipitation will cause about 20% percent increase in total water resources. Ten percent decrease in precipitation will result in about 20% decrease in total water resources. Regional water resources is very sensitive and fragile to the climatic fluctuations. During the wet period, extreme waterlogging occurred four times, while during the dry period it only occurred once. The frequency of extreme waterlogging in the wet period is much higher than that in the dry period. During the dry period, extreme drought occurred four times but it only appearred once during the wet period. The frequency of extreme drought in the dry period is much higher than that in the wet period. The frequencies of extremes also show their sensibility to the climatic fluctuations. Based on the future climate secnarios in Huabei region, impacts of climate change on water resources in 45 years (1998-2042) are investigated primarily.

中图分类号: 

  • P468.0+24