地理科学

地理科学 ›› 2004, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (4): 472-476.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2004.04.472

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

太湖流域上游降水特征分析

罗潋葱1,2, 秦伯强1, 朱广伟1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所, 江苏 南京 210008;
    2. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100039
  • 收稿日期:2003-06-02 修回日期:2003-10-15 出版日期:2004-07-20 发布日期:2004-07-20
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院战略重大项目(KZCX1-SW-12);国家自然科学基金项目(40071019)

Precipitation Characteristics in the Upper Area of Taihu Lake

LUO Lian-Cong1,2, QIN Bo-Qiang1, ZHU Guang-Wei1   

  1. 1. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210008;
    2. Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039
  • Received:2003-06-02 Revised:2003-10-15 Online:2004-07-20 Published:2004-07-20

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67

摘要： 利用太湖入流区域的湖州和宜兴两地46年(1957~2002)的降水观测资料,分析了降水在不同季节内的分配情况及多年变化规律和周期性特征。研究发现,46年来在整个全年降水中,汛期降水量约占60%左右,且有逐年递减的趋势;夏季和冬季降水量分别占全年降水量的35%和15%左右,并逐年递增。就递增趋势而言,冬季较夏季平缓。从旱涝等级的分析结果判断,1974年以前基本以轻旱为主,1974~2002年间具有旱涝交替特征。在所有灾害年中,84.8%的年份为厄尔尼诺或拉尼娜年。从谱分析结果判断,年降水量具有20年的主振荡周期和3.3年、2.2年的次周期,并出现与太阳黑子变化反位相的特征。研究表明,20世纪50年代末至70年代中期为少雨期,70年代末至本世纪初为多雨期。根据降水的周期性特点,本世纪初的20年中,太湖流域将呈现少雨特征, 但并不排除气候异常造成在部分年份出现较大洪涝灾害的可能性。

Abstract: Flood damage leads to great economical loss. Based on precipitation data at Huzhou and Yixing which are located in the upper area of Taihu Lake, precipitation distribution in different seasons and its tendency have been analyzed. The result shows that the precipitation in flood season is about 60% of the annual total amount in most of years during 1997-2002, and 35% in summer and 15% in winter respectively. The tendency analysis suggests that precipitation has been indecreasing in flood season. Slight drought prevailed in this area before 1974 and then flood and drought ocurred alternatively. The conclusion also shows that El-Nino or La-Nina occurred in most of the disaster years. Spectrum analysis is also conducted with the result that the significant period is about 20 years and the sub-period are 2.2 and 3.3 years. The anti-correlation between rainfall and sunspot is also revealed. From the conclusion, the prediction is given that the prevailing damage will be drought in the coming 20 years with possibility that heavy flood disaster will occur due to abnormal climate.

中图分类号: 

  • P468.0＋24