环境污染与经济增长之间关联性的理论分析和计量检验

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2007.02.156

地理科学 ›› 2007, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (2): 156-162.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2007.02.156

环境污染与经济增长之间关联性的理论分析和计量检验

宋涛^1,2, 郑挺国³, 佟连军^1,2

1. 中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所, 吉林, 长春, 130012;
2. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京, 100049;
3. 吉林大学数量经济研究中心, 吉林, 长春, 130012

收稿日期:2006-03-18 修回日期:2006-09-26 出版日期:2007-03-20 发布日期:2007-03-20
通讯作者: 佟连军,男,研究员,博导。E-mail:tonglj@neigae.ac.cn E-mail:tonglj@neigae.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(40571041)

Theoretical Analysis and Econometric Testing on Relationship of Environmental Pollution and Economic Growth

SONG Tao^1,2, ZHENG Ting-Guo³, TONG Lian-Jun^1,2

1. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun, Jilin 130012;
2. Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049;
3. Quantitative Research Center of Economics, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin 130012

Received:2006-03-18 Revised:2006-09-26 Online:2007-03-20 Published:2007-03-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于环境-经济的简单理论模型利用跨期消费选择问题最优化求解和稳态方法分析了环境污染与经济增长之间的长期关系和短期关系。这将为环境污染与经济增长之间长期和短期关系的经验研究提供理论依据和技术支持。基于EKC假设,我们对中国1960~2000年人均CO₂排放量与人均GDP之间的长期关系和短期关系进行实证研究,结果表明人均CO₂排放量与人均GDP之间存在长期协整关系,呈现倒U型的环境库兹涅茨曲线关系,而在短期上,人均GDP单向正向Granger影响人均CO₂排放量,反过来未发现人均CO₂排放量对人均GDP有明显的影响关系。

关键词: 环境污染, 经济增长, 环境库兹涅茨曲线, 协整检验, Granger影响关系检验

Abstract: In this paper,we devote our attention to the relationship between environmental pollution and economic growth in theory and econometrics.To throw some light on them,we first build an infinite time horizon inter-temporal consumption choice problem on a simple environment-teconomy model to deduce the long-run and short-trun relationships between them.Next,the general analysis with the methods of cointegration test and granger causality test is used to test the long-trun and short-run relationships in econometrics.Hence,these conclusions can provide some bases of theory and technology for empirical studies. Based on the EKC hypothesis,we use annual data ranged from 1960 to 2000 in China to investigate the long-run and short-run relationships between environmental pollution and economic growth.The results show that there is a long-run cointegrating relationship between per capita CO₂ emission and per capita GDP which appears an inverse U-shaped EKC relation.In short-run dynamics,per capita GDP in-directionally Granger causes per capita CO₂ emission,but no evidence supporting the response of per capita GDP to per capita CO₂ emission.

Key words: environmental pollution, economic growth, environmental Kuznets curve, cointegration test, granger causality test

中图分类号:

F062.2

宋涛, 郑挺国, 佟连军. 环境污染与经济增长之间关联性的理论分析和计量检验[J]. 地理科学, 2007, 27(2): 156-162.

SONG Tao, ZHENG Ting-Guo, TONG Lian-Jun. Theoretical Analysis and Econometric Testing on Relationship of Environmental Pollution and Economic Growth[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2007, 27(2): 156-162.

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环境污染与经济增长之间关联性的理论分析和计量检验

Theoretical Analysis and Econometric Testing on Relationship of Environmental Pollution and Economic Growth

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