• 论文 •

### 区域土地资源人口承载力理论模型及实证研究

1. 1. 内蒙古财经学院旅游系, 内蒙古 呼和浩特 010051;
2. 内蒙古师范大学地理科学学院, 内蒙古 呼和浩特 010022
• 收稿日期:2007-04-30 修回日期:2007-09-10 出版日期:2008-03-20 发布日期:2008-03-20
• 作者简介:哈斯巴根(1979-), 男, 内蒙古呼伦贝尔市人, 硕士, 从事人文地理学方面的研究与教学。E-mail:sdhsbg@163.com
• 基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:40561003)资助。

### Theoretical Model and Empirical Researches of Regional Land Carrying Capacity

Hasbagen1, Li Bai-Sui1, BAO Yin2, Wu Dun2

1. 1. Department of Tourism, Inner Mongolia Finance and Economics College, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia 010015;
2. Department of Geography, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia 010022
• Received:2007-04-30 Revised:2007-09-10 Online:2008-03-20 Published:2008-03-20

Abstract: Taking the territory of Hohhot City as the study area, and based on dissipation structure theory and the principle and method of system dynamics, a model of regional population carrying capacity of land resources was developed. The results of the simulation show that the medium scheme is the optimal one, then by 2020 the area of farm land will have been reached to 52.42?104 ha, the area of grassland 61.86?104 ha, the percentage of forest cover 35.04%, the value of GDP at 2789.01?108 yuan (RMB), the population 372.34?104, and all the indexes showed above are between the range of high scheme and low one. From the food-population carrying capacity, the result is low scheme> mudiem scheme>high scheme; from the currency-population carrying capacity, the result is high scheme> mudiem scheme>low scheme; from the population comprehensive carrying capacity, the result is high scheme> mudiem scheme>low scheme. The food-population carrying capacity, currency-population carrying capacity and population comprehensive carrying capacity will be 3.1?106 person, 17.32?106 person and 10?106 person respectively in 2020, which indicate that the contribution of the currency-population carrying capacity to the population comprehensive carrying capacity will exceed that of the food population carrying capacity greatly. The suggestions are taken seriously in development and protection of resources and environment while developing the economy, intensifying the rebuilding of the environment, harmonizing the relationship between the economic development and the environment, making up the insufficiency of food population carrying capacity by developing the economy, improving the population comprehensive carrying capacity and promoting social and economic sustainable development.

• F062.1