地理科学 ›› 2008, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (2): 241-246.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2008.02.241

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于复杂性测度的中国洪灾受灾面积变化研究

尹义星, 许有鹏, 陈莹   

  1. 南京大学地理与海洋科学学院, 江苏 南京 210093
  • 收稿日期:2007-03-18 修回日期:2007-08-04 出版日期:2008-03-20 发布日期:2008-03-20
  • 作者简介:尹义星(1974-), 男, 安徽和县人, 博士研究生, 主要从事洪涝灾害、水文水资源方面的研究。E-mail: yyxrosby@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(40571025)、江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK2006133)、高校博士点基金项目(20060284019)、国家自然科学基金重点项目(40730635)、水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(2007SHZ1-24)资助。

Analysis of Variation of Flood-affected Area in China Based on Complexity Measurement

YIN Yi-Xing, XU You-Peng, CHEN Ying   

  1. School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210093
  • Received:2007-03-18 Revised:2007-08-04 Online:2008-03-20 Published:2008-03-20

摘要: 采用复杂性测度方法来进行中国洪涝灾害受灾面积变化的研究。结果表明:(1) 20世纪80、90年代中国洪灾受灾面积及其复杂度均持续上升,说明洪灾剧烈,而且复杂多变、不确定性增加;进入21世纪,两者趋缓或下降,即中国洪涝灾害有所缓解;(2) 从分省区的结果来看,洪灾受灾面积的未来趋势具有区域特征,主要可划分为两个加剧的区域和两个减缓的区域;全国各省市区依据受灾面积趋势可划分为4个等级,在此基础上给出中国的未来洪灾受灾面积趋势图。

Abstract: China is a country with large flood-prone area, thus the research on flood is of great significance. The theory of complexity has provided completely new method for the research on the complex system of flood disaster. To detect the tendency in the future, we apply the method of information entropy to analyze the flood-affected area variation by using the flood disaster data of the whole country and 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. The results are as follows. The average flood-affected area and its complexity increased very fast in the 1980s and 1990s of the 20th century, so that flood disaster was more changeable and its uncertainty increased. However, entering the 21st century, both of them relieved or decreased slightly. As for the provinces, the paper discovers the regional character of future’s trend of flood-affected area. The whole country may be classified into two flood intensified regions and two flood alleviated regions. The paper classifies the provinces of the whole country into four ranks according to the flood area tendency, and a map of future’s tendency of flood disaster area is given at the end.

中图分类号: 

  • X43