• 论文 •

### 中国化石能源使用可持续性评估——基于1990~2006年数据

1. 长春税务学院, 吉林 长春 130012
• 收稿日期:2009-03-10 修回日期:2009-10-16 出版日期:2010-01-20 发布日期:2010-01-20
• 作者简介:赵震宇(1983- ),男,辽宁沈阳人,博士研究生,主要从事宏观经济学领域研究。E-mai:zyzhao07@mails.jlu.edu.cn
• 基金资助:
国家社会科学基金重点项目(09AJY001)资助。

### Development Sustainability Analysis of Chinese Fossil Energy on EcologicalFootprint Model (1990-2006)

ZHAO Zhen-yu, SONG Dong-lin

1. Changchun Taxation college, Changchun Jilin 130012
• Received:2009-03-10 Revised:2009-10-16 Online:2010-01-20 Published:2010-01-20

Abstract: In contemplating the future course of economic growth all over the world,more and more scientists have been aware that economic development was damaging our environment.One persistent concern has been that man’s economic activities would reach a scale where the global climate would be significantly affected.Lots of articles have given the brief overview of the climatic implications of economic activity with special reference to carbon dioxide,and then will present possible strategies for control.It is thought that the economic activities which most affect climate are agriculture and energy.Of these.the latter is probably more significant,is certainly more easily analyzed.A brief overview of the interaction between carbon dioxide and the climate is as follows:combustion of fossil fuels leads to emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.Fossil fuels are?hydrocarbons?found within the top layer of the earth’s?crust,and they are the most important useful energy,and will be discussed here.In the energy sector,emissions of carbon dioxide,particulate matter,and heat are of significance for the global climate.Recent evidence indicates that,even after several millenia,the dynamic processes which determine climate have not attained a stable equilibrium.One of the more carefully documented examples is the global mean temperature which over the last 100 years has shown a range of variation of five-year averages of about 0.6℃.Many climatologists feel that it is prudent to consider as significant the changes witnessed in the last centurythe 0.6℃ range.Although the estimates are uncertain,it is probable that for carbon dioxide such a change would come with an increase of approximately 20 percent in atmospheric concentrations over preindustrial levels.Once in the atmosphere,the residence time appears to be very long,with approximately one-half of all industrial carbon dioxide still airborne.Because of the selective absorption of radiation,the increased atmospheric concertration is thought to lead to increased surface temperatures.The most recently study to date predicts that a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide would eventually lead to a global mean temperature increase of 3℃.The predicted temperature increase by latitude indicates that there is considerable amplification at high latitudes.3 China is one of the biggest economy all over the world today,and she has to think of the problem of the global climate.Since 1990s,China has been very successful in economical increasing,in which fossil fuels are absolutely necessary.However,using fossil fuels unlimitedly is dangerous for our environment.In this text we use Ecological Footprint model created by William Ree and Mathis Wackernagel in 1992 to calculate Chinese Fossil Energy Footprint (FEF) and Fossil Energy Capacity (FEC) from 1996 to 2006.We find Chinese Fossil Energy Deficit (FED) has happened.emission of 1 unit energy not decreased and the forest covering not increased obviously were the main causes of Fossil Energy Deficit.

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