地理科学 ›› 2010, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (4): 551-557.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.04.551

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

城市化与城市土地利用结构关系的协整检验与因果分析——以重庆市为例

鲁春阳1,2, 杨庆媛3, 文枫3   

  1. 1. 西南大学资源环境学院, 重庆 400715;
    2. 河南城建学院测绘与城市空间信息系, 河南, 平顶山 467001;
    3. 西南大学地理科学学院, 重庆 400715
  • 收稿日期:2009-12-09 修回日期:2010-05-31 出版日期:2010-07-20 发布日期:2010-07-20
  • 通讯作者: 杨庆媛, 教授。 E-mail:yizyang@swu.edu.cn.
  • 基金资助:
    "十一五"国家科技支撑计划(2006BJ14B04-02)资助。

Cointegration Test And Granger Causality Test for the Relationship Between Urbanization And Urban Land Use Structure——A Case Study of Chongqing

LU Chun-yang1,2, YANG Qing-yuan3, WEN Feng3   

  1. 1. College of Resource and Environment, South West University, Chongqing, 400715;
    2. Department of Survey and Urban Spacial Information, Henan University of Urban Construction, Pingdingshan, Henan, 467001;
    3. School of Geographical Sciences, South West University, Chongqing, 400715
  • Received:2009-12-09 Revised:2010-05-31 Online:2010-07-20 Published:2010-07-20

摘要: 采用协整检验和Granger因果关系分析法研究重庆市城市化发展和城市土地利用结构变化间的关系,结果表明,城市化和居住用地比例、工业用地比例、公共服务用地比例和绿地比例的时间序列是非平稳的,而其二阶差分具有平稳性;城市化对居住用地比例、工业用地比例、公共服务用地比例和绿地比例的OLS方程残差拒绝单位根,说明城市化和居住用地比例、工业用地比例、公共服务用地比例和绿地比例间存在均衡关系;城市化是居住用地比例、绿地比例变化的Granger原因;工业用地比例是城市化的Granger原因;城市化与公共服务用地比例之间Granger因果关系不明显。

Abstract: Using the methods of Cointegration test and Granger causality test, this paper analyses the relationship between urbanization and urban land use structure—taking Chongqing as an example.The results showed :①The temporal variables of urbanization,residential proportion、industrial proportion、commercial service proportion and green space proportion are non-balanced,but the second order difference of these indices are balanced;②Cointegration relationship exists between urbanization and residential proportion、industrial proportion、commercial service proportion and green space proportion;③Urbanization is the cause of Granger causality of residential proportion and green space proportion; ④Industrial proportion is the cause of Granger causality of urbanization and there isn’t Granger causality between urbanization and commercial service proportion.

中图分类号: 

  • F301