地理科学 ›› 2011, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (11): 1376-1382.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.011.1376

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于系统动力学的中国西南岩溶区的水资源承载力——以贵州省毕节地区为例

何仁伟1,2,3, 刘邵权1, 刘运伟1,2,3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所, 四川 成都 610041;
    2. 西昌学院农业 科学院, 四川 西昌 615013;
    3. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100039
  • 收稿日期:2010-12-16 修回日期:2011-02-24 出版日期:1997-11-20 发布日期:1997-11-20
  • 通讯作者: 刘邵权,副研究员。E-mail: liushq@imde.ac.cn E-mail:liushq@imde.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目"西南山区情势与资源环境安全战略研究(KZCX2-YW-333)"资助。

Application of System Dynamics in Analyzing the Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Karst Region of Southwest China —A Case Study in Bijie Region, Guizhou Province

HE Ren-wei1,2,3, LIU Shao-quan1, LIU Yun-wei1,2,3   

  1. 1. Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China;
    2. School of Agricultural Sciences of Xichang College, Xichang, Sichuan 615013, China;
    3. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2010-12-16 Revised:2011-02-24 Online:1997-11-20 Published:1997-11-20

摘要: 对中国西南岩溶区水资源-生态环境-社会经济反馈关系进行分析,选取贵州省毕节地区做为研究对象,建立毕节地区水资源承载力系统动力学模型;通过动态模拟和综合调试,生成5种有效方案:传统发展型方案(方案1)、节水发展型方案(方案2)、开源与环保发展型方案(方案3)、GDP快速增长型方案(方案4)和协调发展型方案(方案5)。综合分析得出方案5是调控优化方案。对方案5对应的SD模型发展趋势做分析,为毕节地区及西南岩溶区水资源可持续利用提供决策依据。

Abstract: Based on analysis of the basic feedback structure of water resources-ecological environment-social economy system in Karst Region of Southwest China, taking Bijie region, Guizhou Province as the research area, this paper set up a System Dynamic(SD) model of Bijie region through dynamic simulation and synthetical adjustment. Five available schemes were chosen from various experimental schemes. They are traditional development scheme(Scheme 1), water-saving development scheme (Scheme 2), broaden sources of water resources and environmental protection scheme (Scheme 3),fast economic development-oriented scheme (Scheme 4) and coordinated development-oriented scheme (Scheme 5). Comprehensive evaluation indicates that Scheme 5 is the optimal one, which takes social economic development, ecological environment protection, water-saving and water resources development into account, and brings obvious social economic ecological and water-saving benefits. Therefore, this paper analyzed the corresponding SD model of Scheme 5 and the development trend of Bijie region in the next 12 years, and came to the conclusions that the application of Scheme 5 can effectively promote the coordinated development of water resources, ecological environment and social economy in Bijie region, and improve the carrying capacity of water resources in this area.

中图分类号: 

  • TV213