地理科学 ›› 2011, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (2): 251-256.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.02.251

• 论文 • 上一篇    

利用树轮宽度资料重建天山中段南坡巴仑台地区过去645年来的降水变化

张同文1,2,3, 王丽丽1,4, 袁玉江1,2,3, 魏文寿1,2,3, 喻树龙1,2,3, 张瑞波1,2,3, 陈峰1,2,3, 尚华明1,2,3, 范子昂1,2,3   

  1. 1. 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002;
    2. 新疆树木年轮生态实验室, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002;
    3. 中国气象局树木年轮理化研究重点开放实验室, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002;
    4. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2010-02-24 修回日期:2010-07-15 出版日期:2011-02-20 发布日期:2011-02-20
  • 通讯作者: 袁玉江,研究员。E-mail:yuanyuj5502@sina.com E-mail:yuanyuj5502@sina.com
  • 基金资助:
    科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200806011,GYHY200706008)、科技部科技基础性工作专项(2007FY220200)、国家自然科学基金(40975056)、中国气象局新技术推广项目(CMATG2008Z13)、科技部科研院所社会公益研究专项(2005DIB6J113)、中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(IDM200601,IDM200801)共同资助。

A 645-Year Precipitation Reconstruction in Baluntai Region on Southern Slope of Mid-Tianshan Mountains Based on Tree-ring Width

ZHANG Tong-wen1,2,3, WANG Li-li1,4, YUAN Yu-jiang1,2,3, WEI Wen-shou1,2,3, YU Shu-long1,2,3, ZHANG Rui-bo1,2,3, CHEN Feng1,2,3, SHANG Hua-ming1,2,3, FAN Zi-ang1,2,3   

  1. 1. Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830002, China;
    2. Xinjiang Laboratory of Tree Ring Ecology, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830002, China;
    3. Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical Chemic Research of China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830002, China;
    4. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2010-02-24 Revised:2010-07-15 Online:2011-02-20 Published:2011-02-20

摘要: 在分析树木生长对气候要素响应的基础上,利用采自天山中段南坡夫斯坦沟的雪岭云杉树轮宽度年表,重建了巴仑台地区1360~2004A.D.当年7月至次年6月的降水量序列,方差解释量达53%(调整自由度后为52%)。交叉检验结果表明重建方程稳定可信。过去645a以来,巴仑台地区的降水量变化存在12个偏少阶段和12个偏多阶段。巴仑台地区降水量重建序列存在10.7~11、6.7和2.1a的显著准周期及16.5~17.2和2.4~6.6a的较显著准周期,并且在1496A.D.前后发生了降水量由少向多的突变。

Abstract: Dendroclimatology is one of the important methods for examining the past global climate changes and the tree-ring data were used widely as an important archive in paleoclimatic research because of its precise dating, annual resolution, and high correlation with instrumental meteorological data.Based on tree-ring chronologies, long-timescale climate variations have been reconstructed on both regional and hemispheric spatial scales.The study area, the Baluntai region is located on the southern slope of the mid-Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang.So far there are a few dendroclimatogical studies being carried out in this region.The studies were focused on the analysis of tree-ring chronologies’statistics and correlation of chronologies with meteorological data, but the reconstruction of climatic variations has not been done.Because of this, it is very important to reconstruct the climatic variation series in this region in order to recognize the climatic variations on the southern slope of the mid-Tianshan Mountains in the past.In the summer of 2005, 66 spruce (Picea schrenkiana) tree-ring samples were collected from Fustan Gully (FST) (42°45’15.9"N, 86°27’40.0"E), which is located in a mountainous area of Baluntai region.Selected trees did not have outward signs of disturbance (e.g., abrasion scarring, cut branches).Tree-ring samples were prepared, cross-dated and measured following conventional procedures.The site (FST) of tree-ring width residual chronologies was chosen in this study.In addition, meteorological data of Baluntai station close to sampling site were used.The calculation shows that the tree-ring width residual chronology (RESt+1) is significantly correlated with the precipitation from the current July to next June (r=0.73, p<0.01, N=44).In this paper, tree-ring width residual chronology (RESt+1) has been used to reconstruct the precipitation (from the current July to next June) of this region since 1360 A.D.and the explained variance of the function was 52% (F=48.12, p<0.01).After 21-years mean of reconstructed precipitation series was calculated, twelve dry periods in the past 645 years were found in (1370?)-1396, 1442-1469, 1501-1539, 1565-1586, 1619-1652, 1679-1688, 1707-1728, 1755-1788, 1811-1836, 1863-1886, 1907-1918 and 1940-1987, and twelve wet periods were found in 1397-1441, 1470-1500, 1540-1564, 1587-1618, 1653-1678, 1689-1706, 1729-1754, 1789-1810, 1837-1862, 1887-1906, 1919-1939 and 1988-(1994?), respectively.Power spectrum analysis shows that there exist the 16.5-17.2 a, 10.7-11 a, 6.7 a, 2.4-6.6 a and 2.1 a quasi-cycles in precipitation.The periods of 10.7 a to 11 a respond to sunspot cycle length (SCL) and the cycle of aridity in Northwest China.The periods of 2.4 a to 6.7 a probably are related to ENSO events, and the cycle of 2.1 years probably is related to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO).Moving t-test technique (MTT) shows that the abrupt change of precipitation occurred in 1496 in this region.

中图分类号: 

  • P467