50年来秦岭金钱河流域水文特征及其对降水变化的响应

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.010.1229

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

运用集中度和集中期、Kendall秩相关系数、R/S分析法、降水—径流双累积曲线模型及其他数理统计方法,分析了金钱河流域径流的变化特征,探讨了年际、季节及月尺度上径流变化的趋势并预测了未来趋势,用集中期指标反映了径流对降水响应的滞后效应,并定量分析了降水变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献率。结果表明：50 a来径流量呈现出显著的递减趋势（p<0.05）,递减率为34.33 m³/（s•10a）,Hurst指数H=0.669>0.5,表明未来的一段时间内变化趋势与现在相同;1~12月各月径流均表现为下降趋势。流域内径流对降水的响应存在滞后效应,50 a径流对降水平均每年滞后23.6 d,且滞后天数具有明显上升趋势。50 a来径流系数呈极显著减小趋势,降水量转化为径流的部分在逐年减少,被植物截留、填洼、入渗和蒸发的部分增加;径流发生突变后比突变前径流系数降低了35.2%。50 a来降水变化对径流变化的影响率为53.4%,高于人类活动影响率46.6%,是导致径流变化的主要原因,人类活动为次要原因。

关键词: 金钱河流域, 径流, 集中度, 集中期, 径流系数, 滞后, 水文效应

Abstract:

The response of river water resource to both human activities and climate changes, as the theoretical basis to understand the river hydrological process and the sustainable use of regional water resources, has gained more and more attentions in water research during the last decades. In this study, the seasonal and annual variations and the temporal trend of runoff in Jinqian River Basin were analyzed by using the methods of concentration frequency,concentration period, Kendall coefficient, rescaled range analysis and double mass curve for annual rainfall stream flow comprehensively, in which the runoff and precipitation lagging effect was represented by concentrated period index. The effects of the precipitation change and human activities on runoff were also analyzed quantitatively. The annual runoff of Jinqian River is mainly contributed by those occurred from July to October with a proportion of 65%. Regression analysis showed that the Jinqian River’s runoff decreased with time at a rate of 34.33 m³/（s•10a）significantly (p<0.05). The Hurst index was 0.669, which indicates that the decreasing trends of runoff in Jinqian River’s will continue in the future. There is an around 23.6 days hysteresis in the response of runoff to precipitation, and the hysteresis has obvious up trend. Through the annual runoff coefficient, It was found that the runoff from rainfall decreased with the time due to plant interception, infiltration and evaporation during last 50 years. Human activities and climate change both had significant impacts on the water resource of Jinqian River. The result of double mass analysis showed that the decreases of runoff in Jinqian River’s mainly attributed to climate change, and its contribution were 53.4%.

Key words: Jinqian River Basin, runoff, concentration frequency, concentration period, variations of runoff coefficient, hysteresis effect, hydrological effect

中图分类号:

P333

白红英, 侯钦磊, 马新萍, 章杰, 袁博. 50年来秦岭金钱河流域水文特征及其对降水变化的响应[J]. 地理科学, 2012, 32(10): 1229-1235.

Hong-ying BAI, Qin-lei HOU, Xin-ping MA, Jie ZHANG, Bo YUAN. Hydrological Characteristic and Its Responses to Precipitation Change in Jinqian River Basin of Qinling Moutains During the Last 50 Years[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2012, 32(10): 1229-1235.

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月份(月)	1	2	3	4	5	6
包含角度	345°~15°	15°~45°	45°~75°	75°~105°	105°~135°	135°~165°
代表角度	0°	30°	60°	90°	120°	150°
月份(月)	7	8	9	10	11	12
包含角度	165°~195°	195°~225°	225°~255°	255°~285°	285°~315°	315°~345°
代表角度	180°	210°	240°	270°	300°	330°

水文站	Kendall秩相关系数				累积滤波器法	Hurst指数	未来趋势
水文站	M值	趋势			累积滤波器法	Mα	显著性
南宽坪	-1.9622	递减	1.96	显著	递减	0.6691	递减

季节	Kendall秩相关系数					累积滤波器法	Hurst指数	未来趋势
季节	M值	趋势				Mα=0.05	Mα=0.01	显著性
春	-3.1444	递减	1.96	2.57	极显著	递减	0.7970	递减
夏	-1.2397	递减	1.96	2.57	不显著	递减	0.6637	递减
秋冬	-2.1756 -2.9802	递减递减	1.96 1.96	2.57 2.57	显著极显著	递减递减	0.6906 0.8265	递减递减

年份（年）	降水（mm）	径流(10⁸m³)			降水因素		人为因素
年份（年）	降水（mm）	实测	计算	总减少	影响值（10⁸m³）	影响率（%）	影响值（10⁸m³）	影响率（%）
1960~1974	733.608	11.315
1975~1982	654.638	8.303	8.370	3.012	2.945	97.762	0.067	2.238
1983~1992	780.91	13.207	12.765	-	-	-	-	-
1993~2002	647.95	5.446	8.138	5.869	3.177	54.138	2.692	45.862
2003~2009	726.357	8.682	10.866	2.633	0.449	17.044	2.184	82.956
1975~2009	703.149	8.963	10.059	2.352	1.256	53.419	1.096	46.581