地理科学

地理科学 ›› 2012, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (10): 1262-1268.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.010.1262

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近50年人类活动引起的杭嘉湖平原区水位变化

徐光来1,2(), 许有鹏1, 罗贤1, 尹义星3   

  1. 1.南京大学地理与海洋科学学院 江苏 南京 210093
    2. 安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院 安徽 芜湖 241000
    3. 南京信息工程大学应用水文气象研究院 江苏 南京 210044
  • 收稿日期:2011-09-08 修回日期:2011-12-25 出版日期:2012-10-20 发布日期:2012-10-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介：徐光来（1978-）,男,安徽无为人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为水文学与水资源。E-mail: guanglaixu@yahoo.com.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重点项目（40730635）和水利部公益项目（201201072,200901042）资助

Changes of Water Level Induced by Human Activities at Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou Plain in Recent 50 Years

Guang-lai XU1,2(), You-peng XU1, Xian LUO1, Yi-xing YIN3   

  1. 1.School of Geographic and Oceanic Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing,Jiangsu 210093, China
    2.College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, Anhui 241000, China
    3. Applied Hydro-meteorological Research Institute, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing ,Jiangsu 210044, China
  • Received:2011-09-08 Revised:2011-12-25 Online:2012-10-20 Published:2012-10-20

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摘要：

针对杭嘉湖地区洪涝灾害日益加剧的现状,基于1960~2007年日降水和日水位资料,采用Spearman检验、有序聚类分析和线性模拟方法,研究了近50 a来降水和水位变化,在此基础上探讨了降水和人类活动对特征水位变化的贡献率。结果表明,区域近50 a降水变化未见明显趋势,水位呈增加趋势,年最高水位、年平均水位和年最低水位增率分别为0.03 m/10a、0.05 m/10a和0.09 m/10a,且平均水位和最低水位增加达到显著性水平。8个代表站点特征水位均呈增加趋势。空间上沿水流方向,线性坡度值增大。水位降水响应率和平水年水位序列分析显示人类活动是水位变化的重要原因。人类活动对最高水位、平均水位和最低水位变化的贡献值分别为39.0％、56.2％和82.9％。

关键词: 降水-水位序列, 特征水位变化, 人类活动, 平原河网, 杭嘉湖地区

Abstract:

With the gradually increased flooding on the Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou plain, this paper analyses the problems involved in the changes of water levels of the hydrological system of this region. As one of the most developed regions in China, the plain is undergoing fierce urbanization process. Based on the daily precipitation and water level data from 1960 to 2007 of Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou plain, the changes of precipitation and water level time series were analyzed by using linear-regression method, Spearman test, and orderly clustering analysis. Then the contribution rate of precipitation and human activities on water level changes were assessed by normal precipitation years and linear simulation methods. The results showed that the trend of precipitation of regions was no significant, while the water level of the regions was increased. Annual highest, average and lowest water level of the region were increased by 0.03 m/10a,0.05 m/10a and 0.09 m/10a, respectively. And the increase of average and lowest water level of the region reached the significant level. Moreover, the time series of water levels of eight representative hydrologic stations were analyzed. The results showed that most of the water levels of representative hydrologic stations were increased. The trend of all annual lowest water level series was significant, and trend of annual average and highest water level in some stations were significant by Spearman test. In space, along the flow direction, linear trend value of the time series were increased by Kriging interpolation. At last, the reasons for the changes of water level were evaluated. The highest, average and lowest annual water level of the region in normal precipitation years before and after the cut-point were increased by 10.67%, 8.17% and 42.95% respectively, while the precipitation was decreased by -1.06%. The contribution rate of human activities on the changes of the highest, average and lowest water level ??were 39.0%, 56.2% and 82.9% respectively. Human activities were the important cause to water level changes, particularly, to annual lowest water level. The results of this paper will be helpful for the water resources management of the urbanizing plain river network region and sustainable development of society and economy under the changing environment.

Key words: precipitation-water level time series, changes of water level, human activities, plain river network, Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou region

中图分类号: 

  • P343.9