地理科学 ›› 2012, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (11): 1289-1296.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.011.1289

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基于多智能体系统的城市增长时空动态模拟——以江苏省连云港市为例

张鸿辉1,2(), 王丽萍1,3(), 金晓斌1,2, 宋歌1, 周寅康1,2, 杨悉廉1   

  1. 1.南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏 南京 210093
    2.南京大学人文地理研究中心,江苏 南京 210093
    3.连云港师范高等专科学校旅游系,江苏 连云港 222006
  • 收稿日期:2012-04-23 修回日期:2012-07-09 出版日期:2012-11-20 发布日期:2012-11-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:张鸿辉(1980-),男,湖南长沙人,博士后,主要从事遥感与GIS应用研究。E-mail:zhhgis@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家“973”计划项目(2011CB952001)、国家自然科学基金项目(41201386、 41171326)、中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助

Simulation of Spatio-temporal Dynamical Change of Urban Growth Based on Multi-Agent System: Case Study of Lianyungang City, China

Hong-hui ZHANG1,2(), Li-ping WANG1,3(), Xiao-bin JIN1,2, Ge SONG1, Yin-kang ZHOU1,2, Xi-lian YANG1   

  1. 1.School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences of Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210093, China
    2. Research Center of Human Geography, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210093,China
    3.Department of Tourism, Lianyungang Normal College, Lianyungang, Jiangsu 222006, China
  • Received:2012-04-23 Revised:2012-07-09 Online:2012-11-20 Published:2012-11-20

摘要:

城市化是土地利用/覆盖变化中最典型形式之一,探索城市增长的驱动机制并预测其未来变化,对于实现城市可持续发展十分重要。鉴于多智能体系统强大的模拟复杂空间系统的能力,基于联合“自上而下”和“自下而上”决策行为的视角,构建了一个城市增长时空动态模拟多智能体模型,在模型中,宏观Agent实施的“自上而下”的宏观土地利用规划行为和微观Agent自主发起的“自下而上”的微观土地利用空间诉求行为通过二维空间网格相互作用,并通过联合决策共同推动研究区域的城市化进程。以连云港市中心城区为例,考虑了基于目前趋势、经济发展优先和环境保护优先的3种目标情景,并进行了相应的城市增长情景模拟。模拟结果表明:联合“自上而下”和“自下而上”决策行为的城市增长时空动态模拟多智能体模型能够充分发挥多智能体系统的潜力来了解城市化的驱动机制,为城市管理提供基于情景分析的决策支持。

关键词: 城市增长, 时空动态模拟, 多智能体系统, 联合决策, 情景分析, 连云港市

Abstract:

Since the urbanization is one of the most typical form of land use or land-cover change, the exploration of driving mechanism for urban growth and the forecast of its change in future plays an important role in the achievement of urban sustainable development. In view of multi-agent system’s great capability of simulating complex spatial system, a spatio-temporal dynamical model of urban growth simulation based on multi-agent system is developed from the view of combining “top-down” and “bottom-up” decision-making behaviors. In this model, “top-down” macro land use planning implemented by macro agents and “bottom-up” micro land use spatial appeal sponsored by micro agents interact with each other via two-dimensional spatial grid and promote urbanization process in study area together by joint decision-making. Taking central Lianyungang City as the example, three target scenarios, based on current trends, economic development priorities and environmental protection priorities, were developed, and the corresponding urban growth scenarios were simulated and analyzed. The simulation results show that combining “top-down” and “bottom-up” multi-agent decision-making behaviors to simulate spatio-temporal dynamical urban growth can give full play to the potential of multi-agent system to understand the driving mechanism of urbanization and provide decision-making support based on scenario analysis for urban management.

Key words: urban growth, spatio-temporal dynamical simulation, multi-agent system, joint decision-making, scenario analysis, Lianyungang City

中图分类号: 

  • F219