地理科学

地理科学 ›› 2012, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (5): 550-556.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.05.550

• • 上一篇    下一篇

京津冀都市区经济分布演化及作用机制模拟研究

郭腾云1(), 董冠鹏1,2   

  1. 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
    2.中国科学院研究生院,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2011-02-05 修回日期:2011-12-02 出版日期:2012-05-20 发布日期:2012-05-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介：郭腾云（1962-）,男,湖南桂东县人,副研究员,博士,主要从事产业、区域与城市发展研究。E-mail:guoty@igsnrr.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目（40671054）资助

Simulation of Economic Distribution Evolution and Its Driving Forces in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region

Teng-yun GUO1(), Guan-peng DONG1,2   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2011-02-05 Revised:2011-12-02 Online:2012-05-20 Published:2012-05-20

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

赞

被引次数

43 | 13

摘要：

利用kernel密度估计方法考察了京津冀都市区1995~2007年经济分布演化过程,在此基础上,引入经济增长分布模拟模型进一步模拟研究了其经济增长驱动力的作用效应。研究发现：① 京津冀都市区经济增长分布形态经历了“双峰状”→“单峰状”→“双峰状”的演化过程。② 资本深化、技术效率、技术进步和空间依赖效应对京津冀都市区经济增长起显著作用。③ 资本深化和技术效率对京津冀都市区经济增长分布演化起重要作用,而技术进步、空间外溢效应和误差分布效应则没有显著的作用。④ 资本深化分布的变化和技术效率综合作用效应的变化是影响京津冀都市区经济分布演化的驱动力,并通过资本深化的分布效应和技术效率的综合作用效应这两个渠道对其经济分布演化产生影响。⑤ 对京津冀都市区经济增长起作用的因素不一定能够影响到其经济分布的演化,基于分解技术的经济增长分布模拟模型,并利用理论分布和实际分布差异性的统计检验可以识别真正影响其经济分布演化的因素及其作用渠道。

关键词: kernel密度估计, 经济增长分布, 空间依赖效应, 京津冀都市区

Abstract:

The evolution of economic growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region (short for BTHMR) are simulated using Kernel density estimation based on the data of the population, capital investment, and GDP of 140 county-level sub-regions of BTHMR in 1995-2007. And further its driving forces are simulated using spatial lag models based on the variables, such as capital deepening, technological efficiency and technological progress, which derived from the DEA and Malmquist index models, in different periods. Several conclusions are drawn as follows: 1) The shape of economic spatial distribution have changed significantly, from two peaks in 1995 to one peak in 2001, then, two peaks again, with a bigger and bigger gap between poor sub-region groups and rich ones, which indicates that the BTHMR had undergone a change from convergence to club convergence. 2) Capital deepening, technological efficiency, technological progress and spatial dependence play important roles in the economic growth of BTHMR. 3) Capital deepening and technological efficiency have statistically significant impacts on the economic spatial distribution evolution while the spatial dependence and technological progress have not although they both were important driving forces in economic growth. The distribution change of capital deepening and the increasing importance of technological efficiency have contributed to the economic distribution evolution rather than the increasing importance of capital deepening and the distribution change of technological efficiency. The results indicate that the distribution effects of capital deepening and coefficient effects of technological efficiency had become the channel, through which capital deepening and technological efficiency changed the economic distribution evolution.

Key words: kernel density estimation, economic growth distribution, spatial dependence effect, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region

中图分类号: 

  • K901