关键词: “三化”统筹, 因子分析法, 多变量协整检验, 吉林省

Abstract:

Industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization have the inner logical relationship and influence each other. The orchestrating of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization is not only the regional coordination of urban and rural areas, but also the industrial coordination of agriculture and industry. This article sets up the index system to evaluate the industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization in Jilin Province. Based on the time series data of Jilin Province in 1991-2009, the factor analysis method is empoyed to calculate the evaluation indexes. The result shows that the three lines of evaluation indexes interlace with each other but the trends are nearly the same, and especially the unceasing progress trends of industrialization and urbanization are obvious. From the point of view of contrast, the phenomenon of asynchrony is obvious. This article further makes the multivariate cointegration test for the evaluation indexes. The results examine that the industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization do not start synchronously, and industrialization could promote urbanization and agricultural modernization with one year lagged. It means that the industrialization could pull the urbanization and agricultural modernization in the short term. In another word, it is necessary to get the steady promotion of industrialization in the long term, and only the continuous improvement can provide an uninterrupted power to pull the urbanization and agricultural modernization. The improvement of agricultural modernization could also pull the urbanization, but the influence would be revealed three years later, which means that the agricultural modernization could pull the urbanization in the long term and it is different to the cycle of action of industrialization to urbanization. This article gives the explanation that the promotion of industrialization level could drive the development of industrial zone immediately and then cause the gathering of human capital, capital and material resources, and promote the level of urbanization. The promotion of agricultural modernization level could drive the transfer of surplus labor, and gradually expand the demand scale of agricultural production materials, promot the level of urbanization in the long term. Finally, this article puts forward the development thought of orchestrating of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization in Jilin Province. We should use the agricultural paradigm to improve the level of industrialization, use the integration industrial paradigm to improve the level of agricultural modernization, and use the paradigm of agglomeration and integration between industry and agriculture to improve the level of urbanization.

Key words: orchestrating of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization, factor analysis, multivariate cointegration test, Jilin Province