滹沱河上游山区近50年蒸散变化及主要影响因子分析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.05.628

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

准确估计流域蒸散,掌握其变化趋势和主要影响因子,对科学认识流域水文循环规律以及管理流域水资源具有重要意义。利用傅抱璞年蒸散量公式计算滹沱河上游山区及其子流域1958~2007年逐年蒸散量,并利用Mann-Kendall-Sneyers等方法分析了流域蒸散趋势和突变特征,及其主要影响因子。结果表明在滹沱河流域傅抱璞公式能够较好的拟合蒸散。50 a来全流域及各子流域年均蒸散呈下降趋势。降水对蒸散起控制作用,相对湿度在流域部分地区显著影响蒸散（α=0.05）。

关键词: 流域蒸散, 影响因子, 趋势分析, 滹沱河

Abstract:

It is important for both understanding the hydrological rules and managing the water resources to estimate the evapotranspiration accurately in a basin as well as master the trends of both itself and the principal influence factors. This paper calculated the annual evapotranspiration in the upstream mountain areas of Hutuo River Basin in North China during 1958-2007 by Fu Baopu formula, and analyzed the trend, the abruption and the principal influence factors of the evapotranspiration. The result shows that the Fu Baopu formula can estimate the evapotranspiration satisfactorily. In the past 50 years, the evapotranspiration in Hutuo River basin had a decreasing trend (α=0.05). Precipitation influenced the evapotranspiration strongly, while the potential evapotranspiration has little effect on it. In some of the researched area, relatively humidity also had significant influence (α=0.05). The averaged trends of the studied factors are: annual potential evapotranspiration, annual-averaged daily wind speed, hours of sunshine, relative humidity, and atmospheric pressure decreased significantly, annual precipitation decreased non-significantly, annual-averaged daily maximal, mean, minimal temperature increased significantly (α=0.05). The factors and the difference between their multi-year averaged values before and after significant abruptions are: annual potential evapotranspiration decreased 70.30mm. Daily wind speed and hours of sunshine decreased 0.53 m/s and 0.52 h/d, respectively. Daily maximal, mean, minimal temperature increased 1.09、0.95、1.14℃, respectively. Evapotranspiration and precipitation had no abruptions. The sub-basin averaged geological locations, elevations, land cover, and NDVI do not influence the evapotranspiration significantly within the whole basin.

Key words: evapotranspiration, influence factors, trend analysis, Hutuo River

中图分类号:

TV213.9

张瑞钢, 莫兴国, 林忠辉. 滹沱河上游山区近50年蒸散变化及主要影响因子分析[J]. 地理科学, 2012, 32(5): 628-634.

Rui-gang ZHANG, Xing-guo MO, Zhong-hui LIN. The Trend and the Principal Influence Factors of Evapotranspiration in Hutuo River Basin During Last 50 Years[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2012, 32(5): 628-634.

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流域	面积(km²)	ω	MB(%)	MAE(mm)	RMSE(mm)	NSE
全流域	15915	2.45	0.32/1.02	20.71/24.28	24.97/28.97	0.86/0.79
芦庄	729	2.1	0.48/4.92	20.13/27.34	23.68/38.59	0.82/0.65
豆罗桥	714	2.35	1.61/-2.04	30.04/27.53	36.54/34.24	0.71/0.74
会里	477	2.45	-0.28/3.85	21.15/22.32	27.4/32.6	0.83/0.56
南坡	2255	2.35	0.59/4.90	12.6/30.74	27.4/36.03	0.93/0.61
王家会	334	2.05	-0.36/-3.38	27.67/30.66	34.65/36.99	0.55/0.53

	E	E₀	P	T_m	T_mx	T_mn	Sun	U_m
突变点年份（年）	无	1979	无	1996	1994	2001	1987	1983
平均变幅(β)	-0.93	-1.16	-1.24	0.0225	0.0271	0.0205	-0.0191	-0.0159
趋势转折点年份	无	1979	1960	1994	1990	1998	1976	1983
阶段趋势	降	无,降	升,降	降,升	降,升	降,升	升,降	升,降
显著点(0.05),年份	1962	无,1989	无	1971,2001	无,2001	1972,2004	无,1989	无,1987

因子	全流域	豆罗桥	芦庄	会里	南坡	王家会
P	1.02	1.025	0.995	1.033	0.996	0.994
Rh	-0.038	-0.041	-	-0.056	-	-