风暴洪水主要承灾体脆弱性分析——黄浦江案例

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.09.1155

地理科学 ›› 2012, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (9): 1155-1160.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.09.1155

• • 上一篇

风暴洪水主要承灾体脆弱性分析——黄浦江案例

殷杰¹(), 尹占娥², 于大鹏³, 许世远⁴

1. 浙江工商大学旅游与城市管理学院, 浙江杭州 310018
2. 上海师范大学地理系,上海 200234
3. 拉夫堡大学地理系, 莱斯特 LE11 3TU
4. 华东师范大学地理系, 上海 200062

收稿日期:2011-11-13 修回日期:2011-12-22 出版日期:2012-09-20 发布日期:2012-09-20
作者简介:
作者简介：殷杰（1983-）,男,江苏姜堰人,博士,讲师,主要从事自然灾害风险管理研究。E-mail：rjay9@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目（41071324）、国家自然科学基金重点项目（40730526）、教育部人文社会科学研究项目;（12YJCZH257）、上海市教委重点学科项目（J50402）资助

Vulnerability Analysis for Storm Induced Flood:A Case Study of Huangpu River Basin

Jie YIN¹(), Zhan-e YIN², Da-peng YU³, Shi-yuan XU⁴

1. School of Tourism and City Management, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310018, China
2. Department of Geography, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China
3. Department of Geography, Loughborough University, Leicestershire LE11 3TU, UK
4. Department of Geography, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China

Received:2011-11-13 Revised:2011-12-22 Online:2012-09-20 Published:2012-09-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

脆弱性分析是自然灾害风险研究的热点问题之一。风暴洪水是上海黄浦江流域所面临的最主要自然灾害类型,历史上对该区域造成极为严重的灾害损失。通过多次灾后调查,结合前人研究成果,构建该区域7种主要承灾体经济损失脆弱性方程和人口脆弱性方程。基于前期黄浦江风暴洪水多情景危险性成果,开展实证研究,结果显示：经济损失和人口脆弱性分布自黄浦江上游地区向下游逐渐降低。最后,提出未来脆弱性研究中有待进一步完善和发展的工作。

关键词: 风暴洪水, 脆弱性, 黄浦江

Abstract:

Vulnerability analysis is one of the focuses in disaster risk research. However, so far, it is lack of common procedures and practices in China. Storm induced flooding, as one of the most devastating natural hazards in Huangpu river basin of Shanghai, causes considerable personal injury and property damage in the history. Vulnerabilities of economic loss and population were taken into consideration in this study, as the two factors were the most important flood affected areas. A land use map of Shanghai and a population distribution map of different districts of Shanghai in 2006 were generated as key inputs for vulnerability analysis. To perform vulnerability analysis of economic loss, 7 vulnerability functions of different land uses (including residential land, industrial land, traffic land, public service land, farm land, green land, and the others land uses) was constructed by combining the use of data questionnaires in a community-based field data collection campaign, and the integration of previous flood vulnerability research results. For population vulnerability analysis, Jonkman’s population vulnerability function was employed as its representativeness and very little related data was available in Shanghai and all over China. Based on our previous results of multi-scenarios hazards analysis, a case study was presented to demonstrate the proposed algorithm. Subsequent analysis using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) was employed to illustrate the spatial and temporal distribution of vulnerability areas under different scenarios. The results indicated that (1) the vulnerability for economic loss and population gradually reduced from the upstream towards the downstream; (2) the vulnerability for economic loss and population increased with the increasing return periods; (3) the vulnerability for economic loss and population declines overland as distance increase of intrusion inland. Finally, some suggestions were presented for future researches.

Key words: storm induced flood, vulnerability, Huangpu River

中图分类号:

殷杰, 尹占娥, 于大鹏, 许世远. 风暴洪水主要承灾体脆弱性分析——黄浦江案例[J]. 地理科学, 2012, 32(9): 1155-1160.

Jie YIN, Zhan-e YIN, Da-peng YU, Shi-yuan XU. Vulnerability Analysis for Storm Induced Flood:A Case Study of Huangpu River Basin[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2012, 32(9): 1155-1160.

图/表 3

参考文献 30

[1]	IPCC. Climate change 2007:The scientific basis[R]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007.
[2]	林而达, 许吟隆, 蒋金荷, 等. 气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅱ): 气候变化的影响与适应[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2006, 2(2): 51~56.
[3]	谭丽荣, 陈珂, 王军, 等. 近20年来沿海地区风暴潮灾害脆弱性评价[J]. 地理科学, 2011, 31(9): 1111~1117.
[4]	牛海燕, 刘敏, 陆敏, 等. 中国沿海地区近20年台风灾害风险评价[J]. 地理科学, 2011, 31(6): 764~768.
[5]	James P M, Syvitski Albert J, Kettner, et al. Sinking deltas due to human activities[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2009; DOI: 10.1038/ngeo629.
[6]	殷杰, 尹占娥, 许世远. 上海市灾害综合风险定量评价研究[J]. 地理科学, 2009, 29(3): 450~454.
[7]	权瑞松, 刘敏, 张丽佳, 等. 基于情景模拟的上海中心城区建筑暴雨内涝暴露性评价[J]. 地理科学, 2011, 31(2): 148~152.
[8]	UN/ISDR. Living with Risk: A global review of disaster reduction initiatives 2004 version[R]. United Nations publication, 2004.
[9]	刘毅, 黄建毅, 马丽. 基于DEA模型的我国自然灾害区域脆弱性评价[J]. 地理研究, 2010, 29(7): 1153~1162.
[10]	Birkmannn J.Measuring Vulnerability to Hazards of National Origin[M]. Tokyo: UNU Press, 2006.
[11]	Dilley M, Chen R S, Deichmann U, et al.Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis Synthesis Report[R]. Washington DC: Hazard Management Unit, World Bank, 2005: 1-132.
[12]	龚士良, 杨世伦. 地面沉降对上海黄浦江防汛工程的影响分析[J]. 地理科学, 2008, 28(4): 543~547.
[13]	刘晓涛. 上海市防汛工作手册[M]. 上海: 上海科学普及出版社, 2008.
[14]	尹占娥, 许世远, 殷杰, 等. 基于小尺度的城市暴雨内涝灾害情景模拟与风险评估[J]. 地理学报, 2010, 65(5): 553~562.
[15]	石勇, 许世远, 石纯, 等. 沿海区域水灾脆弱性及风险的初步分析[J]. 地理科学, 2009, 29(6): 853~857.
[16]	Jonkman S N, Bockarjova M, Kok M, et al.Integrated hydrodynamic and economic modeling of flood damage in the Netherlands[J]. Ecological Economics, 2008, 66(1): 77-90.
[17]	Sande C, Jong S, Roo A.A segmentation and classification approach of IKONOS-2 imagery for land cover mapping to assist flood risk and flood damage assessment[J]. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation, 2003, 4(3): 217-229.
[18]	Dutta D, Herath, S, Musiake K. A mathematical model for flood loss estimation[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2003, 277(3): 24-49.
[19]	康相武, 吴绍洪, 戴尔阜, 等. 大尺度洪水灾害损失与影响预评估[J]. 科学通报, 2006, 51(增刊): 155~164.
[20]	梁海燕, 邹欣庆. 海口湾沿岸风暴潮风险评估[J]. 海洋学报, 2005, 27(5): 22~29.
[21]	李观义. 基于GIS的洪灾损失评估技术及其应用[J]. 地理与地理信息科学, 2003, 19(4): 97~100.
[22]	冯平, 崔广涛, 钟昀. 城市洪涝灾害直接经济损失的评估与预测[J]. 水利学报, 2001, (8): 64~68.
[23]	王延红, 丁大发, 韩侠. 黄河下游大堤保护区洪灾损失率分析[J]. 水利经济, 2001, (2): 42~46.
[24]	李红英, 李洋. 基于GIS的洪灾损失评估应用研究[J]. 西北水利发电, 2007, 23(1): 45~47.
[25]	王腊春, 江南, 周寅康, 等. 太湖流域洪涝灾害评估模型[J]. 测绘科学, 2003, 28(3): 35~38.
[26]	朱留军. 基于GIS在洪灾损失评估中的应用[J]. 城市勘测, 2009, (6): 36~38.
[27]	谢翠娜. 上海沿海地区风暴潮灾害情景模拟及风险评估[D]. 华东师范大学硕士论文, 2010.
[28]	陈为民. 黄浦江河口建闸工程经济效益分析计算及评价[J]. 上海水务, 2002, (2):1~12.
[29]	Jonkman S N.Loss of life estimation in flood risk assessment, theory and applications[D]. PHD thesis, Delft University of Technology, 2007.
[30]	殷杰. 中国沿海台风风暴潮灾害风险评估研究[D]. 华东师范大学博士论文, 2011.

风暴洪水主要承灾体脆弱性分析——黄浦江案例

Vulnerability Analysis for Storm Induced Flood:A Case Study of Huangpu River Basin

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 3

参考文献 30

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0

[1]	童磊, 郑珂, 苏飞, 汤青, 曹轶蓉, 郑艳艳. 浙江省人口健康脆弱性评估及影响因素分析[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(8): 1293-1299.
[2]	吴吉林, 刘帅, 刘水良, 谢文海, 姚春桂. 张家界农户乡村旅游脆弱性评价与影响因素[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(8): 1336-1344.
[3]	李花, 赵雪雁, 王伟军, 李巍. 甘南高原乡村社会固有脆弱性及其影响因素[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(5): 804-813.
[4]	曾通刚, 赵媛, 杨永春, 贺容. 中国老年群体脆弱性时空格局与性别协调发展特征——基于积极老龄化政策框架[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(12): 1910-1918.
[5]	吴浩, 王秀, 周宏浩, 王颖, 陈晓红. 东北三省资源型收缩城市经济效率与生计脆弱性的时空分异与协调演化特征[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(12): 1962-1971.
[6]	邹君, 刘媛, 谭芳慧, 刘沛林. 传统村落景观脆弱性及其定量评价——以湖南省新田县为例[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(8): 1292-1300.
[7]	杨振, 丁启燕, 王念, 刘会敏. 中国人口健康脆弱性地区差异与影响因素分析[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(1): 135-142.
[8]	奚旭, 张新长, 孙才志, 鲍建腾. 不确定性条件下的下辽河平原地下水脆弱性评价及空间分布软区划[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(9): 1439-1448.
[9]	黄建毅, 苏飞. 城市灾害社会脆弱性研究热点问题评述与展望[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(8): 1211-1217.
[10]	苏飞, 应蓉蓉, 李博. 生计脆弱性研究热点与前沿的可视化[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(7): 1073-1080.
[11]	孙才志, 覃雄合, 李博, 王泽宇. 基于WSBM模型的环渤海地区海洋经济脆弱性研究[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(5): 705-714.
[12]	杨佩国, 靳京, 赵东升, 李静. 基于历史暴雨洪涝灾情数据的城市脆弱性定量研究——以北京市为例[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(5): 733-741.
[13]	高江波, 侯文娟, 赵东升, 吴绍洪. 基于遥感数据的西藏高原自然生态系统脆弱性评估[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(4): 580-587.
[14]	李博, 杨智, 苏飞, 孙才志, 许妍, 郭建科, 王泽宇. 基于集对分析的中国海洋经济系统脆弱性研究[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(1): 47-54.
[15]	杨新军, 张慧, 王子侨. 基于情景分析的西北农村社会-生态系统脆弱性研究——以榆中县中连川乡为例[J]. 地理科学, 2015, 35(8): 952-959.