关键词: 两区域旅游系统, 垄断竞争模型, 基于agent的建模, 非均衡, 动态模拟

Abstract:

In recent years, tourism in China have experienced a period of rapid growth. This article builds a mathematic model based on asymmetric monopolistic competition, scale economy, spatial cost, preference for variety, and product/service differentiations between inland and coastal regions in China. To overcome the weakness of traditional deductive model and equilibrium analysis in tourism research, the article puts forward an approach to integrate economic model with agent-based modeling for better understanding the evolutional process of tourism systems in different scenarios. The TourSwarm, a computational environment we developed, contains multiple economic interactions between tourist and firm agents that are crucial in understanding dynamic process and mechanism because the basic force driving the tourism system is inherently microscopic. This parallel processing agent-based approach has shown various advantages over existing economic approaches such as neoclassical model and equilibrium analysis. By using agent-based modeling and out-of-equilibrium simulation, this article gives a detailed discussion on the impact factors such as continuous decline of transport cost to inland region, continuous decline of substitution elasticity between inland and coast region, continuous decline of substitution elasticity of product and service in inland region. TourSwarm shows that 1) tourism tends to congregate in the coastal region with advantages of location, more demands and scale economy, and 2) the continuous reduction of travel cost and regional differentialization and product/service differentialization could change the systematic state between inland and coastal region significantly and accelerate the dynamic process of tourism agglomeration in some region. In conclusion, the main engine of recent rapid changes in tourism system is the major reduction of transport costs for people through transportation development in China. Due to love-of-varieties, the specialization and diversity of tourist products contribute much to the emergence of tourism in inland region by continuous innovation and difference-making competition strategy. The greater the gap of fixed cost between the inland and coastal region is, the more imbalanced tourism distribution would be, and more easy to form the core-periphery structure. Inland region should pay close attention to improve on its own infrastructure such as facilities and transportations. What's more vital is that the domestic demand of tourism is key to change the spatial structure of tourism system between inland and coastal region in China.

Key words: two-region tourism system, monopolistic competition, agent-based modeling, out-of-equilibrium, dynamics simulation