湘江中下游肾综合征出血热传播风险预测和环境危险因素分析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.01.123

地理科学 ›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (1): 123-128.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.01.123

• • 上一篇

湘江中下游肾综合征出血热传播风险预测和环境危险因素分析

肖洪¹(), 林晓玲¹, 高立冬², 代翔宇¹, 贺新光¹, 陈碧云², 张锡兴³, 赵暕⁴, 田怀玉¹

1. 湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院, 湖南长沙 410081
2. 湖南省疾病预防控制中心, 湖南长沙 410005
3. 长沙市疾病预防控制中心, 湖南长沙 410001
4. 北京大学医学部, 北京 100191

收稿日期:2012-05-05 修回日期:2012-07-22 出版日期:2013-01-20 发布日期:2013-01-20
作者简介:
作者简介:肖洪（1964-）,女,湖南湘潭县人,博士,副教授,主要研究方向为空间流行病学。E-mail:xiaohong.hnnu@gmail.com
基金资助:
湖南省重点学科建设项目（2008001）、湖南省自然科学基金（11JJ3119）、湖南省高校创新平台开放基金（11K037）、湖南师范大学地图学与地理信息系统校级重点学科（2011001）资助;世界野生动物基金会

Environmental Factors Contributing to the Spread of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome and Potential Risk Areas Prediction in Midstream and Downstream of the Xiangjiang River

Hong XIAO¹(), Xiao-ling LIN¹, Li-dong GAO², Xiang-yu DAI¹, Xin-guang HE¹, Bi-yun CHEN², Xi-xing ZHANG³, Jian ZHAO⁴, Huai-yu TIAN¹

1. College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan 410081, China
2. Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, Hunan 410002, China
3. Changsha Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, Hunan 410001, China
4. Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing 100191, China

Received:2012-05-05 Revised:2012-07-22 Online:2013-01-20 Published:2013-01-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用2005~2010年湘江中下游地区HFRS病例数据和相关环境数据,结合地理信息系统、遥感技术和最大熵值法生态位模型探索湘江中下游地区HFRS传播风险和主要危险因素。研究结果表明,望城县和长沙县北部,衡东县、株洲县和湘潭县交界处以及衡东县南部等区域为潜在风险区。5和7月的NDVI值在 0.3~0.4之间的区域HFRS传播风险高,城镇和建筑用地是主要风险用地类型。生态位模型结合地理景观、气象条件及人类活动数据对湘江中下游地区HFRS传播进行分析,较其他模型获得的结果准确率更高。

关键词: 肾综合征出血热, 生态位模型, 最大熵值法, 湘江中下游

Abstract:

HFRS (human hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome) occurs at very high frequency in the midstream and downstream of the Xiangjiang River. It is of great significance for understanding the regulation of the transmission of HFRS in this area due to its major impact on local economy development and public health. The risk factors and potential risk of HFRS in the midstream and downstream of theXiangjiang River were explored by combining the ecologic niche modeling, geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing technique in this article. The average area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was 0.785. The 64 cases in 2010 were predicted correctly except for one case in a low risk area. These showed that the model possess good prediction performance. The modeling results indicated that the north of Wangcheng County and Changsha County, the border of Hengdong County , Zhuzhou County and Xiangtan Countiy, and the south of Hengdong County were predicted as the potential risk area. The following factors were found to be closely relative to the highest risk of HFRS transmission: mean annual temperature of 18℃, annual precipitation of about 1 500 mm, at urban and constructive land, and normalized difference vegetation index between 0.3 and 0.4 in May and July and with low elevation. The transmission of HFRS in the midstream and downstream of the Xiangjiang River was analyzed by using the ecologic niche model combining the geographical environment, climatic condition and human activity data. Our results are more accurate than those from other models and these findings in the study. Therefore, they are applicable for targeting control and prevention efforts.

Key words: hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, ecologic niche modeling, maximum entropy, midstream and downstream of the Xiangjiang River

中图分类号:

R188

肖洪, 林晓玲, 高立冬, 代翔宇, 贺新光, 陈碧云, 张锡兴, 赵暕, 田怀玉. 湘江中下游肾综合征出血热传播风险预测和环境危险因素分析[J]. 地理科学, 2013, 33(1): 123-128.

Hong XIAO, Xiao-ling LIN, Li-dong GAO, Xiang-yu DAI, Xin-guang HE, Bi-yun CHEN, Xi-xing ZHANG, Jian ZHAO, Huai-yu TIAN. Environmental Factors Contributing to the Spread of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome and Potential Risk Areas Prediction in Midstream and Downstream of the Xiangjiang River[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2013, 33(1): 123-128.

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变量名称	数据来源	数据类型
土地利用	MODIS遥感影象提取与分类	分类型
CTI	美国地质调查局	连续型
MHT	世界野生动物基金会	分类型
人迹指数	国际地球科学信息中心	连续型
生态系统	世界环保组织	分类型
温度	中国气象科学数据服务共享网	连续型
降水量	中国气象科学数据服务共享网	连续型
NDVI	TM遥感影响提取	连续型
高程	国际科学数据服务平台	连续型
坡度	高程数据中提取	连续型

湘江中下游肾综合征出血热传播风险预测和环境危险因素分析

Environmental Factors Contributing to the Spread of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome and Potential Risk Areas Prediction in Midstream and Downstream of the Xiangjiang River

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