中国台风灾害综合风险评估与区划

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.011.1370

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国是受台风影响较多的国家之一,中东部地区人口、经济密集,台风频繁登陆对农业、人口、房屋与经济构成重大威胁。从台风灾害成灾机理出发,在采用历史灾情数据构建台风灾害损失标准的基础上,对承灾体脆弱性进行评估,综合分析台风在每一个县域单元内的发生可能性,基于承灾体脆弱性和台风发生可能性评估结果,应用风险评估模型,对不同强度等级台风造成的风险进行定量评估。通过对同一强度等级不同承灾体的风险、不同强度等级台风风险进行综合,实现台风灾害风险分区,划分为3类（高、中、低风险）9个大区,并提出防灾减灾策略与建议。

关键词: 台风灾害, 风险评估, 综合, 区划

Abstract:

Under the background of global climate change, extreme events occur frequently which can cause intensified natural disaster risk. China characterized with high population density and intensive economy in east-central areas, as one of the countries influenced frequently by typhoon events, the agriculture, population, buildings and economy are threatened significantly by typhoon disasters. The quantitative risk assessment on disaster-bearing bodies and regionally integrated zoning are not just a theory study in risk management, also can offer practical guidance on mitigation and prevention in typhoon disaster. In our study, on the basis of the typhoon disaster mechanism, the vulnerabilities of disaster-bearing bodies were evaluated according to typhoon disaster loss criteria established by applying historical typhoon loss data. In addition, the probabilities of typhoons in each country region were analyzed comprehensively using the indices of landing frequencies and track line lengths. Then applying risk assessment model, the typhoon risks caused by the different intensities were evaluated quantitatively. Synthesized on the risks of the same or the different intensity typhoons for disaster-bearing bodies, the typhoon disaster risk zone for China was divided into nine areas and belonged to three classes (respectively is high, medium and low risk). The high risk areas are located in southern part of Guangxi Province, most of Guangdong Province, coastal areas of Fujian and Zhejiang Province, Yangtz River Delta area, most of Jiangsu Province, some inland counties of Jiangxi and Anhui Province. Based on the above results, the helpful suggestions on prevention and reduction in regional typhoon disaster were put forward.

Key words: typhoon disaster, risk assessment, integration, zoning

中图分类号:

P954

殷洁, 戴尔阜, 吴绍洪. 中国台风灾害综合风险评估与区划[J]. 地理科学, 2013, 33(11): 1370-1376.

Jie YIN, Er-fu DAI, Shao-hong WU. Integrated Risk Assessment and Zoning of Typhoon Disasters in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2013, 33(11): 1370-1376.

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距标准差倍数	赋值标准	相当于风险等级
<-1.5	0.10	低
-1.5~-0.5	0.25	较低
-0.5~0.5	0.50	中
0.5~1.5	0.75	较高
>1.5	1.00	高

台风灾害强度	承灾体可能风险范围
台风灾害强度	农作物受灾面积（10⁴hm²）	农作物绝收面积（10⁴hm²）	受灾人口（万人）	死亡人口（人）	受伤人口（人）	紧急安置人口（万人）	房屋倒塌（万间）	直接经济损失（亿元）
微度	25~150	5~100	500~1500	100~300	500~2000	50~100	5~50	50~100
轻度	150~300	100~120	1500~2000	300~700	2000~5000	100~300	50~80	100~200
中度	300~500	120~150	2000~5000	700~1500	5000~10000	300~500	80~100	200~300
重度	500~1000	150~300	5000~10000	1500~5000	10000~20000	500~1500	100~400	300~400

台风灾害强度	台风灾害风险
台风灾害强度	低风险	较低风险	中风险	较高风险	高风险
微度	573	113	79	51	219
轻度	584	102	66	46	237
中度	570	87	66	52	260
重度	554	82	55	68	276