长江三角洲极端高温与西太平洋副热带高压的关系

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.011.1383

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于站点逐日最高气温资料、西太平洋副热带高压（WPSH）指数、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及上海逐日天气形势资料,分析长江三角洲极端高温与WPSH指数的关系,结果表明,1959~2010年期间,高温日数与当年WPSH面积和强度指数均呈显著正相关。空间上,高温日数与WPSH面积和强度指数在长江三角洲中部和南部偏东地区显著正相关,与WPSH西伸脊点仅在中部沿海地区显著负相关。高温日数与WPSH指数在8月相关最好。7、8月高温日数较多时,WPSH面积较大、强度较强、西伸脊点偏西。近8 a来上海高温日的主要控制或影响天气系统都是WPSH,占高温总日数的95%。

关键词: 极端高温, 西太平洋副热带高压（西太副高）, 天气系统, 长江三角洲

Abstract:

Under the impacts of global climate change and regional rapid urbanization, the extreme high temperature events have increased in the Changjiang River Delta in recent years, which further have serious influence on regional society and economics system and residents' livings. Therefore, it is quite useful and necessary to understand the characteristics of extreme high temperature and their causes for the purpose of prevention and mitigation of disaster. Based on the daily maximum temperature data of 32 meteorological stations in the Changjiang River delta, western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) indices from Beijing Climate Center, monthly 500 hPa geopotential height fields based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and daily synoptic situation data in recent years in Shanghai, the long time-series relation between extreme high temperature in the Changjiang River Delta and the WPSH was analyzed in spatial and temporal scales, and the results indicates that there is a significant positive correlation between high temperature days in the Changjiang River Delta and the area and intensity indices of WPSH in the whole year, winter and spring during 1959-2010, but the correlations between high temperature days and the ridge position and the west-extending ridge point position of WPSH are not statistically significant. Spatially, in the middle and southeastern parts of the Changjiang River Delta, there is a significant positive correlation between annual high temperature days and annual area and intensity indices of WPSH, and in the central coastal areas, there is a significant negative correlation between annual high temperature days and annual west-extending ridge point of WPSH. There is a better correlation between monthly high temperature days and monthly WPSH indices in August than in July as a whole, and the correlation is better during 1981-2010 than during 1959-1980 in August. There is a significant positive correlation between high temperature days and the area and intensity indices of WPSH, and a significant negative correlation between high temperature days and the west-extending ridge point position of WPSH in August during 1981-2010. In July or August, there is a positive anomaly of the area and intensity of WPSH and negative anomaly of west-extending ridge point of WPSH when monthly high temperature days are more than normal value. In July or August with more high temperature days, the west-extending ridge point position of WPSH is close to the Yangtze River delta, but in July or August with less high temperature days, the west-extending ridge point position of WPSH is located far away from the Changjiang River Delta. In Shanghai, the weathers are mainly controlled or influenced by system of WPSH during high temperature days in recent 8 years, accounting for 95% of the total high temperature days, but in days when the controlled or influenced systems are WPSH, the occurrence probability of high temperature is 67%, and most of the high temperature days have the daily maximum temperature range from 35.0℃ to 36.9℃.

Key words: extreme high temperature, western Pacific subtropical high, synoptic system, the Changjiang River Delta

中图分类号:

P467

史军, 崔林丽, 梁萍, 穆海振. 长江三角洲极端高温与西太平洋副热带高压的关系[J]. 地理科学, 2013, 33(11): 1383-1389.

Jun SHI, Lin-li CUI, Ping LIANG, Hai-zhen MU. Relationship Between Extreme High Temperature in the Changjiang River Delta and the Western Pacific Subtropical High[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2013, 33(11): 1383-1389.

图/表 8

表1

表2

图1

表3

表4

图2

图3

图4

参考文献 24

[1]	陶诗言,徐淑英.夏季江淮流域持久性旱涝的环流特征[J].气象学报,1962,32(1): 1~18.
[2]	黄荣辉,孙凤英.热带西太平洋暖池的热状态及其上空的对流活动对东亚夏季气候异常的影响[J].大气科学,1994, 18(2): 141~151.
[3]	黄士松. 有关副热带高压活动及其预报问题的研究[J].大气科学,1978,2(2): 159~167.
[4]	卫捷,杨辉,孙淑清.西太平洋副热带高压东西位置异常与华北夏季酷暑[J].气象学报,2004, 62(3): 308~316.
[5]	刘屹岷,吴国雄.副高研究回顾及对几个基本问题的再认识[J].气象学报,2000,58(4): 500~512.
[6]	朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等.天气学原理与方法(第三版)[M].北京:气象出版社,2000:474~484.
[7]	吴国雄,丑纪范,刘屹岷,等.副热带高压形成和变异的动力学问题[M].北京:科学出版社,2002:26~27.
[8]	赵振国. 中国夏季旱涝及环境场[M].北京:气象出版社,1999.
[9]	张庆云,陶诗言.夏季西太平洋副热带高压异常时的东亚大气环流特征[J].大气科学,2003,27(3):369~380.
[10]	Yang Hui,Sun Shuqing.Longitudinal displacement of the subtropical high in the western Pacific in summer and its influence[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2003,20(6):921-933.
[11]	He Jinhai,Zhou Bing,Wen Min,et al.Vertical circulation structure,interannual variation features and variation mechanism of western Pacific subtropical high[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2001,18(4):497-510.
[12]	龚道溢,何学兆.西太平洋副热带高压的年代际变化及其气候影响[J].地理学报,2002,57(2):185~193.
[13]	任广成,吴小林,李旺.盛夏副高脊线异常变化对我国气温影响及海气背景分析[J].气象与环境科学,2009,32(3):1~5.
[14]	王艳姣,任福民,闫峰.中国区域持续性高温事件时空变化特征研究[J].地理科学,2013,33(3): 314~321.
[15]	史军,丁一汇,崔林丽.华东极端高温气候特征及成因分析[J].大气科学,2009,33(2):347~358.
[16]	崔林丽,史军,周伟东.上海极端气温变化特征及其对城市化的响应[J].地理科学,2009,29(1): 93~97.
[17]	郑祚芳. 北京极端气温变化特征及其对城市化的响应[J].地理科学,2011,31(4): 459~463.
[18]	Shi Jun, Cui Linli.Characteristics of high impact weather and meteorological disaster in Shanghai, China[J].Natural Hazards,2012,60: 951-969.
[19]	施洪波. 华北地区高温日数的气候特征及变化规律[J].地理科学,2012,32(7): 866~871.
[20]	邹燕,周信禹,林毅,等. 福建省夏季高温成因分析[J].气象,2001,27(9):26~30.
[21]	彭海燕,周曾奎,赵永玲,等.2003年夏季长江中下游地区异常高温的分析[J].气象科学,2005, 25(4):355~361.
[22]	杨辉,李崇银.2003年夏季中国江南异常高温的分析研究[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(1):80~85.
[23]	陶诗言,卫捷.再论夏季西太平洋副热带高压的西伸北跳[J].应用气象学报,2006,17(5):513~525.
[24]	林建,毕宝贵,何金海.2003年7月西太平洋副热带高压变异及中国南方高温形成机理研究[J].大气科学,2005,29(4):594~599.

7月高温日数较多		7月高温日数较少		8月高温日数较多		8月高温日数较少
年份（年）	高温日(d)	年份（年）	高温日(d)	年份（年）	高温日(d)	年份（年）	高温日(d)
1971	15.5	1999	1.2	1967	14.5	1960	0.1
1988	15.2	1973	1.4	2010	13.3	1980	0.1
1994	14.4	1975	2.5	1966	12.5	1999	0.6
2003	14.3	1982	2.7	1998	11.4	1982	0.7
1964	13.3	1974	3.0	2003	10.5	2001	0.7
2007	13.3	1997	3.0	2006	9.8	1975	1.0
1990	12.7	1987	3.1	1971	9.7	1972	1.1
2004	12.7	1989	3.3	1976	9.3	1997	1.2
2001	12.5	1972	3.4	1959	9.2	1985	1.7
1978	11.2	1968	3.7	1995	7.1	1965	1.9

年	季(年)	WPSH指数
年	季(年)	面积指数	强度指数	脊线	北界	西伸脊点
上年	年	0.3285	0.2340	0.1084	0.0391	-0.2242
	冬季	0.1999	0.0389	0.1749	0.0510	-0.1180
	春季	0.1301	0.0519	0.1772	0.0100	-0.0847
	夏季	0.3259	0.2471	0.0634	0.0457	-0.1815
	秋季	0.3735	0.2982	-0.0772	-0.1054	-0.3040
当年	冬季	0.4160	0.4000	0.0434	0.1195	-0.3541
	春季	0.2565	0.2902	0.0898	0.1653	-0.2028
	夏季	0.3817	0.4002	0.2110	0.2045	-0.3628
	秋季	0.2489	0.2507	0.1112	0.0989	0.0016
	年	0.3519	0.3760	0.2146	0.2369	-0.2493

时期	WPSH指数	相关系数
时期	WPSH指数	6月	7月	8月	9月
1959~1980	面积	0.1567	0.0538	-0.0640	-0.0655
	强度	0.1511	0.0283	-0.1269	0.0318
	脊线	0.3664	0.3032	0.2493	-0.2582
	北界	0.2539	0.1659	0.1983	-0.1797
	西伸脊点	-0.1744	-0.2092	-0.2208	0.1343
1981~2010	面积	0.1542	0.3156	0.7142	0.4091
	强度	0.0490	0.3027	0.7370	0.6836
	脊线	0.0321	0.0155	0.1806	0.0594
	北界	-0.1448	0.0801	0.2190	0.2343
	西伸脊点	0.0427	-0.2905	-0.6108	-0.2398
1959~2010	面积	0.2199	0.2611	0.3736	0.2107
	强度	0.1490	0.2546	0.3966	0.4164
	脊线	0.1341	0.1267	0.2175	-0.0579
	北界	0.0254	0.0966	0.2145	0.0567
	西伸脊点	-0.0642	-0.2715	-0.4334	-0.0677

逐月及高温特征	WPSH指数
逐月及高温特征	面积	强度	脊线	北界	西伸脊点
7月高温日数较多	0.3	1.22	0.45	0.25	-1.99
7月高温日数较少	-5.7	-14.58	-0.55	-0.95	9.61
8月高温日数较多	4.89	17.5	1.76	1.33	-11.58
8月高温日数较少	-4.41	-13.4	0.66	0.43	3.42