地理科学 ›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (2): 244-250.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.02.244

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秦岭南北风速时空变化及突变特征分析

蒋冲1(), 王飞1,2(), 刘焱序3, 穆兴民1,2, 李锐1,2   

  1. 1.西北农林科技大学资源环境学院,陕西 杨凌,712100
    2. 中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所,陕西 杨凌,712100
    3.陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院, 陕西 西安 710062
  • 收稿日期:2012-06-11 修回日期:2012-09-11 出版日期:2013-02-20 发布日期:2013-02-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:蒋 冲(1987-),男(汉族),黑龙江哈尔滨人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为气候变化与生态水文。E-mail:cba8702@126.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41171420);中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室基金项目(10502-Z12-9);中荷联合主题研究项目(GJHZ1018)资助

Spatial-Temporal Variation and Mutation of Wind Speed in the Northern and Southern Regions of the Qinling Mountains

Chong JIANG1(), Fei WANG1,2(), Yan-xu LIU3, Xing-min MU1,2, Rui LI1,2   

  1. 1.College of Resources and Environment, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China
    2. Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China
    3. College of Tourism and Environment Science, Shannxi Normal University, Xi′an, Shannxi 710062, China
  • Received:2012-06-11 Revised:2012-09-11 Online:2013-02-20 Published:2013-02-20

摘要:

根据秦岭南北47个气象站1960~2011年逐月风速和气温资料,采用样条曲线插值法(Spline)、Pettitt突变点检验、气候倾向率和相关分析等方法对该区风速的空间分布、时空演变特征及其可能影响因素进行了分析。结果表明:① 秦岭南北风速空间分布呈东高西低、北高南低格局,按其大小排序为秦岭以北>秦岭南坡>汉水流域>巴巫谷地。四季风速排序为春季>冬季>夏季>秋季,均以秦岭以北最大。② 近52 a来,秦岭南北整体和各子区年平均风速呈现一致的显著下降趋势,下降最快的为秦岭南坡,最慢的为汉水流域。四季风速下降速率排序为冬季>春季>秋季>夏季。③ 年和季节尺度风速的突变集中出现在1969~1974、1978~1981和1990~1994年间,秦岭南北整体于1981年突变。④ 气象台站周边的城市化发展和风速测量仪器的更换都对风速的变化产生了一定影响,但都不是风速显著下降的主要原因,大气环流变化和气候变暖才是造成风速减小的可能原因。

关键词: 秦岭南北, 风速, 时空变化, 突变点, 影响因素

Abstract:

Wind speed time series have been subject to far fewer trend analysis than temperature and precipitation records, in part because of data homogeneity issues. However, understanding how evolution of the global climate system has been manifest as changes in near-surface wind regimes in the past and how near-surface wind speed regimes might alter in the future is of great relevance to the insurance industry, the construction and maritime industries, surface energy balance estimation, the community charged with mitigating coastal erosion, the agricultural industry, forest and infrastructure protection communities, and the burgeoning wind energy industry. Based on the temperature and wind speed data between 1960 and 2011 in the northern and southern region of Qinling Mountains, with the methods of Spline interpolation, Pettitt abrupt change point detection as well as correlation analysis, the distribution pattern, spatial and temporal variation of wind speed as well as the possible influential factors were analyzed. The result are as follows: 1) The wind speed presented an pattern which was big in south and low in north, big in east and small in west. According to wind speed, the order was northern and southern region of Qinling Mountains, Han River Basin and Ba-wu Valley , the order of season was spring, winter, summer and autumn. 2) Wind speed decreased significantly in the whole region and different sub-regions during the last 52 years, the decreasing rate in northern slope was the biggest and the smallest one was in the Han River Basin.The order of decreasing rate was winter, spring, autumn and summer. In spring, the wind of 77% stations decreased; In summer, 70% stations decreased, which mainly located in the east and north; In autumn, the increasing and decreasing stations accounted 23% and 77% respectively, but only 9% of them reached significant level, most of them lied in Han River Basin and Ba-wu Valley. In winter, 83%(17%) stations showed downward(upward) trend, 70% of them reached significant level, which distributed evenly in different sub-regions. 3) The annual and seasonal abrupt change happened mainly in 3 periods, which were 1969-1974、1978-1981 and 1990-1994, the whole region was detected abrupt change in 1981. 4) The development of city construction and change of observational devices had some effect on wind speed change, however, regional current change and global warming were the main reasons for wind speed decreasing.

Key words: the northern and southern regions of the Qinling Mountains, wind speed, spatial-temporal variations, abrupt change point, influential factors

中图分类号: 

  • S157