关键词: 城市化, STIRPAT模型, 碳排放

Abstract:

Urbanization and carbon emissions have attracted intensively attention. This article analyzes the impacts of the urbanization on CO₂ emissions in three aspects. Then the historical data of 76 countries (regions) (1980-2007) are employed by separating them into different categories according to urbanization levels to study the correlation between the stage of urbanization and the dynamic evolution of the CO₂ emissions. The main impact factors on CO₂ emissions during different stages of urbanization are evaluated based on the STIRPAT model. Finally, according to analysis results, combined with the characteristics of the various elements in the development stage of urbanization, this study explores the impacts of various stages of urbanization on CO₂ emissions. The results showed that: the urbanization affects the CO₂ emissions mainly through changing lifestyle, production and land use, which performances a driving and restricting role. In the early stage of urbanization, the driving and restricting effect of the CO₂ emissions are not obvious, showing slow development in urban system and the slow growing carbon emissions rate; in the mid-stage, the driving role of urbanization on CO₂ emissions becomes to be dominant, but the restricting effect is weaker, which is characterized by the acceleration development of urbanization system, the city development in numbers and scales, the accelerated industrialization process, and a rapid growth of CO₂ emissions; in latter stage, the city enters a slow phase of development, urbanization on the driving role of CO₂ emissions is still dominant, but the restricting effect is gradually enhancing. In this stage, the quality of urbanization continuously improves, and household consumption reaches a high level. Meanwhile, the phenomenon of suburban urbanization and counter urbanization appear, the tertiary industry takes up most part of industrial structure, technical level increases rapidly, CO₂ emissions becomes slow, but the total emissions are still increasing. Therefore, the impact of urbanization on CO₂ emissions is different in various urbanization stages. In response to CO₂ emission reduction mandate in the context of global climate change, countries (regions) should reasonably guide the process of urbanization and enhance the restricting effect of urbanization.

Key words: urbanization, STIRPAT model, CO2 emission