近60 a丹东极端温度和降水事件变化特征

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.04.473

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用丹东1951~2010年逐日温度和降水资料,以多重分形去趋势波动分析法定义极端事件的阈值,分析了该地区极端最高温度、极端最低温度和极端降水的变化特征。结果表明：近60 a丹东极端最低温度事件比极端最高温度和极端降水事件发生次数多,极端最高温度强度比极端最低温度大,平均超出了1.5 ℃,而极端降水平均强度为30.3 mm,都在20世纪70年代最小,70年代是转折期;50年代的极端气候事件（温度和降水）最为严重,其次是90年代,70年代的严重度最轻;极端降水频次变化不明显,极端最高温度事件可以由夏季平均最高温度的变化预测,有不显著的增多趋势,而极端最低温度事件可以用冬季平均日较差温度的变化预测,在今后一段时间内有显著减少的趋势。

关键词: 极端温度, 极端降水, 多重分形去趋势波动分析

Abstract:

Based on the daily temperature and precipitation in Dandong during 1951-2010 and the definition of the threshold of extreme events using the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis, this study analyzes the characteristics of extreme maximum temperature, extreme minimum temperature and extreme precipitation. The results show that the frequency of extreme minimum temperature event is more than that of extreme maximum temperature and extreme precipitation events over Dandong in recent six decades. The intensity of extreme maximum temperature is larger than that of extreme minimum temperature, with the average value of 1.5 °C. The average intensity of extreme precipitation is 30.3 mm. Both the frequency and intensity of these extreme events are the smallest in 1970s, which is also the turning point. The extreme climate events (temperature and precipitation) in 1950s are the severest, and these events in 1990s are the second severest, whereas the severity of these events in 1970s is the smallest. Meanwhile, the frequency of extreme precipitation varies unobviously. The frequency of extreme maximum temperature event could be predicted by the changes in the average summer maximum temperature, which shows that there is insignificant positive trend in extreme maximum temperature. The frequency of extreme minimum temperature can be forecasted using the average winter daily temperature range, which results in the significant negative trend in the frequency of extreme minimum temperature in future.

Key words: extreme temperature, extreme precipitation, multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis

中图分类号:

P467

杜海波, 吴正方, 张娜, 宗盛伟, 孟祥君. 近60 a丹东极端温度和降水事件变化特征[J]. 地理科学, 2013, 33(4): 473-480.

Hai-bo DU, Zheng-fang WU, Na ZHANG, Sheng-wei ZONG, Xiang-jun MENG. Characteristics of Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Events over Dandong During the Last Six Decades[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2013, 33(4): 473-480.

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	平均温度		最高温度		最低温度		温度日较差		降水
	趋势（℃/a）	Sig.	趋势（℃/a）	Sig.	趋势（℃/a）	Sig.	趋势（℃/a）	Sig.	趋势（mm/a）	Sig.
1月	0.050^*	0.002	0.037^*	0.014	0.063^*	0.000	-0.019^*	0.004	0.072^*	0.000
2月	0.055^*	0.001	0.054^*	0.002	0.065^*	0.001	-0.005	0.519	0.137^*	0.000
3月	0.037^*	0.002	0.041^*	0.002	0.034^*	0.003	0.005	0.588	0.240^*	0.011
4月	0.031^*	0.001	0.015	0.118	0.038^*	0.000	-0.024^*	0.004	0.401	0.124
5月	0.022^*	0.001	0.007	0.515	0.036^*	0.000	-0.033^*	0.000	0.715^*	0.013
6月	0.023^*	0.000	0.019	0.059	0.032^*	0.000	-0.010	0.362	-0.027	0.939
7月	0.005	0.459	0.002	0.702	0.012	0.073	-0.008	0.254	-1.192	0.170
8月	0.010	0.086	0.011	0.082	0.009	0.233	0.000	0.990	-0.902	0.403
9月	0.025^*	0.001	0.023^*	0.003	0.034^*	0.001	-0.010	0.149	-0.456	0.251
10月	0.019^*	0.038	0.017	0.134	0.022^*	0.030	-0.004	0.515	-0.248	0.348
11月	0.013	0.301	0.005	0.745	0.015	0.233	-0.008	0.248	-0.019	0.848
12月	0.008	0.433	0.005	0.764	0.017	0.233	-0.016^*	0.009	0.174^*	0.000
春季	0.031^*	0.000	0.022^*	0.003	0.037^*	0.000	-0.013^*	0.003	1.450^*	0.001
夏季	0.013^*	0.003	0.010	0.124	0.018^*	0.000	-0.005	0.329	-2.306	0.134
秋季	0.019^*	0.002	0.013^*	0.043	0.023^*	0.001	-0.007	0.079	-0.741	0.216
冬季	0.044^*	0.000	0.036^*	0.002	0.051^*	0.000	-0.011^*	0.024	0.718^*	0.000
年	0.026^*	0.000	0.019^*	0.000	0.032^*	0.000	-0.009^*	0.003	-0.401	0.813

	MF-DFA方法		百分位方法（97.5%）
	阈值	频次（d）	阈值	频次（d）
极端最高温度（℃）	32.8	55	29.9	597
极端最低温度（℃）	-21.3	67	-16.2	626
极端降水（mm）	111.7	25	30.6	517

		极端最高温度频次	极端最高温度强度	极端最低温度频次	极端最低温度强度	极端降水频次	极端降水强度
夏季	降水	-0.12	0.14	–	–	0.69	0.46
	平均温度	0.69	0.32	–	–	-0.05	0.24
	平均最高温度	0.85	0.48	–	–	0.20	0.48
	平均最低温度	0.53	0.46	–	–	-0.15	0.23
	平均日较差温度	0.45	-0.06	–	–	0.65	0.39
冬季	降水	–	–	-0.43	-0.27	–	–
	平均温度	–	–	-0.68	0.09	–	–
	平均最高温度	–	–	-0.49	0.11	–	–
	平均最低温度	–	–	-0.67	0.09	–	–
	平均日较差温度	–	–	0.89	-0.05	–	–
年	降水	-0.12	0.50	0.46	-0.68	0.59	0.55
	平均温度	0.42	0.23	-0.70	-0.08	-0.40	-0.03
	平均最高温度	0.63	0.37	-0.49	-0.05	-0.20	0.17
	平均最低温度	0.33	0.31	-0.61	-0.14	-0.46	0.03
	平均日较差温度	0.25	-0.11	0.64	0.24	0.75	0.22