地理科学 ›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (4): 473-480.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.04.473
杜海波1(), 吴正方1(
), 张娜2, 宗盛伟1, 孟祥君1,3
收稿日期:
2012-03-21
修回日期:
2012-08-05
出版日期:
2013-04-20
发布日期:
2013-04-20
作者简介:
作者简介:杜海波(1987-),男,四川南充人,博士研究生,研究方向为生态气候。E-mail:
基金资助:
Hai-bo DU1(), Zheng-fang WU1(
), Na ZHANG2, Sheng-wei ZONG1, Xiang-jun MENG1,3
Received:
2012-03-21
Revised:
2012-08-05
Online:
2013-04-20
Published:
2013-04-20
摘要:
利用丹东1951~2010年逐日温度和降水资料,以多重分形去趋势波动分析法定义极端事件的阈值,分析了该地区极端最高温度、极端最低温度和极端降水的变化特征。结果表明:近60 a丹东极端最低温度事件比极端最高温度和极端降水事件发生次数多,极端最高温度强度比极端最低温度大,平均超出了1.5 ℃,而极端降水平均强度为30.3 mm,都在20世纪70年代最小,70年代是转折期;50年代的极端气候事件(温度和降水)最为严重,其次是90年代,70年代的严重度最轻;极端降水频次变化不明显,极端最高温度事件可以由夏季平均最高温度的变化预测,有不显著的增多趋势,而极端最低温度事件可以用冬季平均日较差温度的变化预测,在今后一段时间内有显著减少的趋势。
中图分类号:
杜海波, 吴正方, 张娜, 宗盛伟, 孟祥君. 近60 a丹东极端温度和降水事件变化特征[J]. 地理科学, 2013, 33(4): 473-480.
Hai-bo DU, Zheng-fang WU, Na ZHANG, Sheng-wei ZONG, Xiang-jun MENG. Characteristics of Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Events over Dandong During the Last Six Decades[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2013, 33(4): 473-480.
表1
月、季和年尺度的平均温度、最高温度、最低温度、温度日较差和降水的变化趋势"
平均温度 | 最高温度 | 最低温度 | 温度日较差 | 降水 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
趋势(℃/a) | Sig. | 趋势(℃/a) | Sig. | 趋势(℃/a) | Sig. | 趋势(℃/a) | Sig. | 趋势(mm/a) | Sig. | |
1月 | 0.050* | 0.002 | 0.037* | 0.014 | 0.063* | 0.000 | -0.019* | 0.004 | 0.072* | 0.000 |
2月 | 0.055* | 0.001 | 0.054* | 0.002 | 0.065* | 0.001 | -0.005 | 0.519 | 0.137* | 0.000 |
3月 | 0.037* | 0.002 | 0.041* | 0.002 | 0.034* | 0.003 | 0.005 | 0.588 | 0.240* | 0.011 |
4月 | 0.031* | 0.001 | 0.015 | 0.118 | 0.038* | 0.000 | -0.024* | 0.004 | 0.401 | 0.124 |
5月 | 0.022* | 0.001 | 0.007 | 0.515 | 0.036* | 0.000 | -0.033* | 0.000 | 0.715* | 0.013 |
6月 | 0.023* | 0.000 | 0.019 | 0.059 | 0.032* | 0.000 | -0.010 | 0.362 | -0.027 | 0.939 |
7月 | 0.005 | 0.459 | 0.002 | 0.702 | 0.012 | 0.073 | -0.008 | 0.254 | -1.192 | 0.170 |
8月 | 0.010 | 0.086 | 0.011 | 0.082 | 0.009 | 0.233 | 0.000 | 0.990 | -0.902 | 0.403 |
9月 | 0.025* | 0.001 | 0.023* | 0.003 | 0.034* | 0.001 | -0.010 | 0.149 | -0.456 | 0.251 |
10月 | 0.019* | 0.038 | 0.017 | 0.134 | 0.022* | 0.030 | -0.004 | 0.515 | -0.248 | 0.348 |
11月 | 0.013 | 0.301 | 0.005 | 0.745 | 0.015 | 0.233 | -0.008 | 0.248 | -0.019 | 0.848 |
12月 | 0.008 | 0.433 | 0.005 | 0.764 | 0.017 | 0.233 | -0.016* | 0.009 | 0.174* | 0.000 |
春季 | 0.031* | 0.000 | 0.022* | 0.003 | 0.037* | 0.000 | -0.013* | 0.003 | 1.450* | 0.001 |
夏季 | 0.013* | 0.003 | 0.010 | 0.124 | 0.018* | 0.000 | -0.005 | 0.329 | -2.306 | 0.134 |
秋季 | 0.019* | 0.002 | 0.013* | 0.043 | 0.023* | 0.001 | -0.007 | 0.079 | -0.741 | 0.216 |
冬季 | 0.044* | 0.000 | 0.036* | 0.002 | 0.051* | 0.000 | -0.011* | 0.024 | 0.718* | 0.000 |
年 | 0.026* | 0.000 | 0.019* | 0.000 | 0.032* | 0.000 | -0.009* | 0.003 | -0.401 | 0.813 |
表3
极端气候事件频次和强度与不同尺度的平均温度和降水相关分析"
极端最高 温度频次 | 极端最高 温度强度 | 极端最低 温度频次 | 极端最低 温度强度 | 极端降 水频次 | 极端降 水强度 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
夏季 | 降水 | -0.12 | 0.14 | – | – | 0.69 | 0.46 |
平均温度 | 0.69 | 0.32 | – | – | -0.05 | 0.24 | |
平均最高温度 | 0.85 | 0.48 | – | – | 0.20 | 0.48 | |
平均最低温度 | 0.53 | 0.46 | – | – | -0.15 | 0.23 | |
平均日较差温度 | 0.45 | -0.06 | – | – | 0.65 | 0.39 | |
冬季 | 降水 | – | – | -0.43 | -0.27 | – | – |
平均温度 | – | – | -0.68 | 0.09 | – | – | |
平均最高温度 | – | – | -0.49 | 0.11 | – | – | |
平均最低温度 | – | – | -0.67 | 0.09 | – | – | |
平均日较差温度 | – | – | 0.89 | -0.05 | – | – | |
年 | 降水 | -0.12 | 0.50 | 0.46 | -0.68 | 0.59 | 0.55 |
平均温度 | 0.42 | 0.23 | -0.70 | -0.08 | -0.40 | -0.03 | |
平均最高温度 | 0.63 | 0.37 | -0.49 | -0.05 | -0.20 | 0.17 | |
平均最低温度 | 0.33 | 0.31 | -0.61 | -0.14 | -0.46 | 0.03 | |
平均日较差温度 | 0.25 | -0.11 | 0.64 | 0.24 | 0.75 | 0.22 |
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