近50年内蒙古地区生长季变化趋势

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.04.505

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以内蒙古地区47个气象站点1961~2010年气象数据为基础,应用Mann-Kendall趋势性检验和线性回归法分析了不同指标下内蒙古地区生长季变化趋势特征以及区域差异。结果表明：1961~2010年内蒙古地区生长季长度增加趋势明显,增加幅度约为13.0~17.0 d,各指标间差异小、一致性较高,可作为表征该区温度变化的一个重要应用指标;整个内蒙古地区生长季趋势的平均状态很大程度上掩盖了指标间的区域差异,内蒙古中西部地区生长季变化对温度阈值比较敏感,阿拉善盟地区0℃阈值生长季开始时间提前、生长季长度延长较强烈,乌兰察布盟以及锡林郭勒盟等地10℃阈值生长季结束时间延后、生长季长度增加更为突出;有无霜期限制对内蒙古中部大部分地区生长季趋势影响较大,尤其是对生长季开始时间。

关键词: 内蒙古, 生长季, 气候变化

Abstract:

In this study, the characteristics of change trends of growing season and their spatial differences among the different indicators over Inner Mongolia were analyzed, using meteorological data recorded in 47 meteorological stations over the year 1961-2010, based on Mann-Kendall trend test and linear regression method. The results showed that the growing season length of Inner Mongolia region increased significantly from 1961 to 2010, about 13.0-17.0 days. The high consistency among different indices meant that thermal growing season can be used as an key application indicators to reflect temperature changes in this region. However, the average growing season trends over the whole region largely covered the spatial differences between the indices. Growing season trends in western and central Inner Mongolia were more sensitive to the temperature threshold. e.g. the start of the growing season of 0℃ threshold shifted relatively earlier, and the length increased strongly in Alxa League, while the increasing end and length was more prominent under 10℃ threshold in Ulanqab and Xilingol League. Including or excluding a frost criterion had a significant impact on the growing season trends in most central parts of Inner Mongolia, especially on the beginning of the growing season.

Key words: Inner Mongolia, growing season, climate change

中图分类号:

P423.3

郭灵辉, 吴绍洪, 赵东升, 冷国勇, 张清雨. 近50年内蒙古地区生长季变化趋势[J]. 地理科学, 2013, 33(4): 505-512.

Ling-hui GUO, Shao-hong WU, Dong-sheng ZHAO, guo-yong LENG, Qing-yu ZHANG. Change Trends of Growing Season over Inner Mongolia in the Past 50 years[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2013, 33(4): 505-512.

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生长季开始	生长季结束	生长季长度
5日滑动平均后第一次连续5 d日平均气温大于0℃的第一天（S1）	5日滑动平均后最后一次连续5 d日平均气温大于0℃的最后一天（E1）	S1至E1（GSL1）
5日滑动平均后第一次连续5 d日平均气温大于5℃的第一天（S2）	5日滑动平均后最后一次连续5 d日平均气温大于5℃的最后一天（E2）	S2至E2（GSL2）
5日滑动平均后第一次连续5 d日平均气温大于10℃的第一天（S3）	5日滑动平均后最后一次连续5 d日平均气温大于10℃的最后一天（E3）	S3至E3（GSL3）
第一次连续5 d日平均气温大于5℃的第一天（S4）	最后一次连续5 d日平均气温大于5℃的最后一天（E4）	S4至E4（GSL4）
春季霜后第一次连续5 d日平均气温大于5℃的第一天（S5）	秋季霜前最后一次连续5 d日平均气温大于 5℃的最后一天（E5）	S5至E5（GSL5）

统计量	生长季开始时间线性变化幅度（d）
统计量	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5
平均	-10.4	-8.2	-9.4	-9.8	-6.5
标准差	4.1	3.0	2.7	3.4	3.6
最小值	-21.0	-15.9	-15.1	-17.5	-14.4
最大值	-3.7	0.0	-3.8	-3.5	0.3

指标	相关系数
指标	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5
S1	1.00
S2	0.33^*	1.00
S3	0.17	-0.13	1.00
S4	0.35^**	0.49^**	-0.06	1.00
S5	0.19	0.08	0.19	0.52^**	1.00

统计量	生长季结束时间线性变化幅度（d）
统计量	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5
平均	3.8	6.3	7.5	7.2	6.6
标准差	3.0	2.5	3.0	2.6	2.9
最小值	-2.1	0.0	0.8	2.0	0.9
最大值	11.0	10.7	14.0	13.1	12.3

指标	相关系数
指标	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5
S1	1.00
S2	0.32^*	1.00
S3	0.04	-0.004	1.00
S4	0.23	0.51^**	0.01	1.00
S5	0.44^*	0.36	0.11	0.55^**	1.00