中国碳减排目标的地区分解方法研究述评

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.09.1089

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

碳减排目标的区域分配是中国当前控制CO₂排放的紧迫问题。通过文献研究,评述了国际上针对国家之间的碳排放权的区域分解方案以及中国碳减排目标的国内区域分解方案,提出了要想真正公平、公正、可行以及可持续地进行碳减排目标的地区分解,必须明确以下几个方面的关键和核心问题：分配对象、分配原则、分配方案必须考虑的因素、分配标准、分配方法、分配模型以及分配结果的可靠性和合理性。

关键词: 碳减排目标, 地区分配, 排放强度承诺, 区域差异

Abstract:

In late 2009, the Chinese government committed to cut its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 40%-45% of those in 2005 by 2020, in order to demonstrate its commitment to reducing global emissions. Although the national intensity reduction target is clearly set, how this target should be allocated to the various sectors has not yet been determined. To control the carbon emission in China, one of the most difficult and complex issues is how to allocate the greenhouse gas emission reduction burdens into province level, and forming a set of strict assessment indicators. The regional allocation of carbon emission reduction decides the reduction responsibility of different areas, relates to regional sustainable development and concerns whether China will deliver on its reduction promises. According to China's situation, there are great differences among provinces in economic development, population, standard of living, economic structure and energy use, thus the emission reduction task cannot be simply allocated, and various factors must be taken into account. From the references, the key issues are: 1) allocation object;2) allocation principle;3) considerations in allocation;4) allocation standards;5) allocation methods;6) allocation model;7) reliability and reasonability in the analyzing the former studies. This article reviewed the researches on the carbon permit allocation among countries as well as carbon mitigation targets allocation among different provinces in the context of emission intensity commitment in China, and then analyzed the allocation methods in China from the above seven aspects. Based on literature review, there are large divergences in the allocation object, principles, indicator, methods, model, etc. in China. Related researches are still in the primary stage, and no research results can be directly applied in the implementation process. So these issues must be integrated and clearly considered in the regional allocation of carbon emission reduction in order to be really fair, just, feasible, sustainable, and ultimately fulfill the emission reduction commitments. Finally, this article emphasized that the points which restricts the regional allocation of carbon emission reduction in China is the absence of acceptable grounds, but not the policy instrument. In order to ultimately fulfill emission reduction commitments, and achieve the sustainable development of different regions, researchers should pay much attention to the theory basis study, and emphasis should be paid to improve the allocation models as well as sensitivity analysis of the input parameters.

Key words: carbon mitigation targets, regional allocation, emission intensity commitment, regional difference

中图分类号:

X321

刘春兰, , 蔡博峰, , 陈操操, , 王海华, , 李铮. 中国碳减排目标的地区分解方法研究述评[J]. 地理科学, 2013, 33(9): 1089-1096.

Chun-lan LIU, Bo-feng CAI, Cao-cao CHEN, Hai-hua WANG, Zheng LI. Review of Carbon Mitigation Targets Allocation in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2013, 33(9): 1089-1096.

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