1766年以来黄河上中游汛期径流量变化的同步性

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.09.1145

地理科学 ›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (9): 1145-1149.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.09.1145

1766年以来黄河上中游汛期径流量变化的同步性

潘威¹(), 闫芳芳¹, 郑景云², 勾晓华³

1. 陕西师范大学西北历史环境与经济社会发展研究院, 陕西西安 710062
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101
3. 兰州大学资源环境学院, 甘肃兰州 730000

收稿日期:2012-11-03 修回日期:2013-01-10 出版日期:2013-09-30 发布日期:2013-09-30
作者简介:
作者简介：潘威（1981-），男，上海宝山人，助理研究员，博士，主要研究方向为历史自然地理与历史地理信息化。E-mail:panwei@snnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家重点基础研究发展规划（973计划）项目（2010CB950100）、中国科学院重点部署项目（KZZD-EW-04-01）资助

The Synchronization of Natural Runoff Chang in Flood-season of Upper and Middle Reaches of the Huanghe River in 1766-2004

Wei PAN¹(), Fang-fang YAN¹, Jing-yun ZHENG², Xiao-hua GOU³

1. Center for Historical Environment and Socio-economic Development in Northwest China, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi′an, Shaanxi 710062, China
2. Institute of Geographic Sciences andNatural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101,China
3. College of Earth and Enviromental Science, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000,China

Received:2012-11-03 Revised:2013-01-10 Online:2013-09-30 Published:2013-09-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

依据清代陕县万锦滩志桩水位记录和阿尼玛卿山祁连圆柏树轮,分别重建器测资料之前的三门峡和唐乃亥黄河汛期径流量,得到1766~2000年河源与中游年际分辨率的汛期径流量序列。中游与河源段流量都存在着具有明显阶段性的4~6 a周期和50 a周期,前一周期在1820年代前后与1960年代前后一致,而后一周期则基本贯穿两流量序列的置信区间之内。交叉小波分析显示,两者在年代际尺度上相关性最好,而在年际尺度上,则有非常明显的中游变化滞后于河源3~5 a的现象。年代际规模上黄河上中游的枯流首先是自然变化的结果。

关键词: 黄河, 径流量, 气候变化

Abstract:

Climate change and regional development under the background of water resource decreased over the Huanghe River basin, which is under the monsoon climate control. The runoffs during flood season in the Huanghe River are about 60%-70%. Based on the water level records and Yu-Fen-Cun records in Qing dynasty documents and modern hydrological records, we reconstructed the annual flood-season runoff of middle reaches of the Huanghe River (Sanmenxia station) and the upper reaches (Tangnaihai) is based on the tree-ring width. The average of runoff is 19.94×10⁹m³ (Tangnaihai) and 50.78×10⁹m³(Sanmenxia). In this article, the extreme flood/dry years are reconstructed based on a new method. Based on the two runoff series, the synchronization of the Huanghe River and the Yongding River is stagabl, and during 1840-1860s, 1890-1910s, the synchronization disappear, the inverse correlation is very obvious. The wavelet shows that there is 4a-6a cycle in both of the 2 stationgs, In MWP, the trend of the Huanghe River inverse correlationship is more obvious. Rain-fed agriculture is the most important economy part of China during the past thousands of years, while rainy summer and autumn leads to rivers flood, so in history Chinese government must predominate the flood to avoid the agricultural loss. Wavelet shows that there is a 50 year cycle in the runoff series. The results show that: the runoff in the middle reaches of the Huanghe River has interannual and interdecadal oscillations like 6-8 years, quasi-22 years and 50 years. The determination of the quasi-22 years is linked to the changing of Wolf Sunspot Numbers. The solar activity is significant during the 1830s. ENSO event is negative with the changing of natural runoff at the inter-annual scale. There is a low-flow period in the last 4 eras of LIA, and it has been the longest low-flow period since 1766. The summer is the key reason for the changing of flood season beginning time for the unstable rainband moving from the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River to the middle reaches of the Huanghe River.

Key words: the Huanghe River, runoff, climate change

中图分类号:

K928.43

潘威, 闫芳芳, 郑景云, 勾晓华. 1766年以来黄河上中游汛期径流量变化的同步性[J]. 地理科学, 2013, 33(9): 1145-1149.

Wei PAN, Fang-fang YAN, Jing-yun ZHENG, Xiao-hua GOU. The Synchronization of Natural Runoff Chang in Flood-season of Upper and Middle Reaches of the Huanghe River in 1766-2004[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2013, 33(9): 1145-1149.

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1766年以来黄河上中游汛期径流量变化的同步性

The Synchronization of Natural Runoff Chang in Flood-season of Upper and Middle Reaches of the Huanghe River in 1766-2004

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