关键词: 二氧化碳排放, 极值边界分析（EBA）, “稳健性”检验

Abstract:

With the rapid development of China’s economy, China's total carbon emissions in 2011 have exceeded American’s and claimed the top spot in the world. The study on the influence factors of China's carbon emissions has been a hot international issue for a long time. Since China is currently in a critical period of national economic transformation development, it is particularly important to handle the relationship between carbon emissions reduction and economic development. The studies about the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth have been performed from different perspectives. And some influence factors of carbon emissions have been proposed including the factors to increase carbon emissions, to reduce carbon emissions, which are regional and temporary factors, or long-term "robust" influence factors. Based on the theory of environmental economics, we employ the model of the extreme bounds analysis (EBA) and expand the Kaya identity; using the panel data of 30 provincial regions, and empirically analyzes the factors which have "robust" effects on per capita carbon emissions in provincial regions. And thus a general rule has been revealed between China’s regional environmental pollution and economic growth. That is, the six factors, local financial spending, industrial structure, energy efficiency, energy consumption structure, energy prices and passenger capacity, have anti-interference, robust, and significant impacts on per capita carbon emissions. Therefore, when developing economic, China should be fully aware of the impact of carbon emissions in order to achieve sustainable development. Based on these results, we propose some suggestions on which governments make policy of environmental protection and economic development. The policy implications of this study contain four aspects: 1) to adjust the industrial structure and limit the development of high-carbon industries; 2) to optimize energy consumption structure, to develop new energy, and to renewable energy; 3) to develop circular economy, to exploit clean technology, and to improve energy efficiency; and 4) to advocate a low carbon life, to promote low-carbon lifestyle. China is in the stage of acceleration of industrialization, urbanization, facing large-scale infrastructure construction, therefore energy demand of China shows a rapid growth. The driving factors of carbon emissions involves in economic development, industrial structure, energy consumption structure, and many other aspects, thus reducing carbon emissions will be a difficult, complex systems engineering. In the high-emission model of economic development, there exist a dilemma between emission reduction and economic development. How to explore the market laws of economic development and carbon emissions, establish associated carbon emissions market access mechanism and market transaction mechanism, this will provide a powerful impetus to low-carbon technologies and low-carbon economy. In the long term, this is conducive to promoting the sustainable development of China's economy.

Key words: carbon dioxide emission, the extreme bounds analysis, robust test