地理科学

地理科学 ›› 2014, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (1): 54-59.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.01.54

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基于主成分分析法的钦州市耕地面积变化及其驱动力分析

吴美琼1(), 陈秀贵2   

  1. 1.广西水利电力职业技术学院,广西 南宁530023
    2.广西国土资源规划院,广西 南宁530028
  • 收稿日期:2013-01-07 修回日期:2013-03-15 出版日期:2014-01-10 发布日期:2013-08-16
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介：吴美琼(1979-),女,广西融安人,硕士,讲师,主要从事土地资源开发利用与保护研究。E-mail:522800748@qq.com

  • 基金资助:
    钦州市土地利用总体规划修编项目资助

Changes in Arable Land Area in Qinzhou City and Its Driving Force Based on the Principle Component Analysis

Mei-qiong WU1(), Xiu-gui CHEN2   

  1. 1.Guangxi Technology College of Water Conservancy and Electric Power, Nanning, Guangxi 530023, China
    2.Land and Resources Planning Institute of Guangxi, Nanning, Guangxi 530028, China)
  • Received:2013-01-07 Revised:2013-03-15 Online:2014-01-10 Published:2013-08-16

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摘要：

以钦州市为例,采用主成分分析方法,从经济、人口、农业和土地4个方面选取了13个因子,分析其在2001~2010年对耕地面积变化的影响,揭示耕地面积变化的作用机制,从而为制定合理的耕地保护政策提供依据。研究结果表明：① 钦州市耕地面积总体呈逐年下降趋势,年平均减少约460 hm2。② 钦州市耕地面积变化的主要因子是经济社会发展、人口增加和农业生产发展,这3者构成了耕地面积变化主要驱动力。③ 可以从减少建设占用、加强土地开发利用、加强农业结构调整的引导和管理等3个方面遏制钦州市耕地面积减少的势头。

关键词: 耕地面积变化, 耕地保护, 钦州市

Abstract:

The protection of arable land use plays an important role in the food security and it is of great importance to protect arable land resources. In the process of arable land use, driving forces that affect the changes in arable land area is rather complicated. With Qinzhou City as a case study, in order to provide a guidance for making reasonable policy in protecting arable land, this article is to research the driving forces from 2001 to 2010 that affect the arable land changes and reveal this mechanism, adopting the principle component analysis in terms of economy, population, agriculture and land. The study indicates that the arable land area in Qinzhou City decreases annually with an average of 460 ha. The main reasons are construction land use and disaster destroy as well as abandoned land. Economy and social developments as well as agriculture development that affect arable land changes in Qinzhou City are also the major driving forces of arable land changes. Meanwhile, economy and social development inevitably occupy a certain amount of arable land, but it is difficult to make up arable land with the same quality and quantity, which results in the decrease of arable land. The increasing population will boost the process of urbanization, where residences and infrastructures will occupy large amount of arable land. Agriculture that affects arable land changes mainly reflects on the industry adjustment, in which farmers readjust the agricultural structure automatically according to the benefits and it leads to the decreasing quality and quantity of a certain amount of arable land. Measures such as reducing construction land use and developing land use as well as raising land use efficiency can be taken to curb the trend of decreasing arable land in Qingzhou City. Effective plans such as land reclamation and using the used land as well as saving land use can be made to control land decreasing to protect arable land to a greater extent.

Key words: arable land area change, arable land protection, Qinzhou City

中图分类号: 

  • F301.21