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### 长春市“两抢两盗”犯罪的空间分析

1. 1. 中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,吉林 长春 130102
2. 美国路易斯维尔大学地理与地球科学系,美国肯塔基州 路易斯维尔 40292
3. 东北师范大学地理科学学院,吉林 长春 130024
• 收稿日期:2013-10-15 修回日期:2014-02-27 出版日期:2014-11-10 发布日期:2014-11-10
• 作者简介:

作者简介：刘大千（1983-）,男,辽宁本溪人,博士,助理研究员,主要从事犯罪地理、城市问题研究。E-mail：liudaqian@neigae.ac.cn

• 基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（41301143）资助

### Spatial Analysis on Robbery, Forcible Seizure, Vehicle Theft and Burglary in Changchun

Da-qian LIU1, Wei SONG2, Chun-liang XIU3

1. 1. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun, Jilin 130102, China
2. Department of Geography and Geosciences, University of Louisville, Louisville 40292, KY, USA
3. School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, Jilin 130024, China
• Received:2013-10-15 Revised:2014-02-27 Online:2014-11-10 Published:2014-11-10

Abstract:

Criminal geography which is one of the important branches in terms of crime studies is highly valued for its practicality. The studies concerning criminal geography in China are still at the beginning stage. More practical studies are needed so as to provide suggestions for the policing work. Different types of crimes usually have various distribution patterns as well as influential factors, which in turn requires deeper understanding in order to make wiser measures to counter crimes. Based on the crime data collected at the police-precincts level in Changchun, we choose the robbery, forcible seizure, vehicle theft and burglary as studies subjects and examine their distribution patterns in 2008 using the method of location quotient. Further, the influential factors of each crime are explored using the regression analysis and the mechanisms are also discussed. The results show that different crimes display various patterns and characteristics in terms of the spatial distribution. Generally, the robbery and forcible seizures tend to concentrate in the central part of the city and become less in the peripheral suburbs, while vehicle theft and burglary rates present an opposite pattern that the outside police-precincts are prone to higher crime risks. The regression analyses indicate that robbery, forcible seizures, vehicle theft are associated with some influential factors significantly in varying degrees. The robbery rates of Changchun are proved to be positively associated with the density of main roads and the proportion of commercial land use, and negatively related to the variables of the existence of vast industrial area and the number of high-rise buildings. The regression results also indicate that the forcible seizures rates are positively correlated to the variables of population density, the service activities as well as the existence of main commercial area. Meanwhile, the vehicle theft rates show a positively relationship with the existence of vast industrial area, while it exhibits negative relationship with the variables of the length of main roads and the distance between the centroid of the Jiedao and the nearest main roads. All the significant relationships between the different crime rates and respective influential factors can be explained according to the relevant theories and the specific socioeconomic characteristics of Changchun. The regression models indicate that the crime rates are a function of the characteristics of people in an area as well as the environment and characteristics of the area where people reside or work. However, we fail to build up a regression model with respect to burglary rates, which may be due to the fact that the variables we selected to conduct the regression analysis for burglary rates are too general and not able to explain the variance of burglary rates in Changchun. Finally, according to the conclusions drawn in the study, some implications for city management are proposed in the last part of this study.

• DF792.9