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### 最近50年来山东地区夏季降水的时空变化及其影响因素研究

1. 鲁东大学海岸研究所,山东 烟台 264025
• 收稿日期:2013-09-30 修回日期:2013-11-19 出版日期:2014-02-10 发布日期:2014-02-10
• 作者简介:

作者简介：王庆（1968-）,男,山东沂南人,教授,博士生导师,从事自然地理研究。E-mail：schingwang@126.com

• 基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（41171158,41071011）资助

### Spatial-temporal Variations and Influential Factors of Summer Precipitation in Shandong Region During the Last 50 Years

Qing WANG(), Qian-qian MA(), Yan-Ling XIA, Chang-Shan WANG, Yan-Fei WANG, Chao ZHAN

1. Coast Institute of Ludong University, Yantai, Shandong 264025, China
• Received:2013-09-30 Revised:2013-11-19 Online:2014-02-10 Published:2014-02-10

Abstract:

Shandong region is located in eastern coastal of China. Due to the combined effects of marine and Continental, monsoon climate significantly, rainfall mainly concentrate in the summer and heavy rain often appears. It is easy to form flood disaster. Because of less rain in the other seasons, especially spring, it is easy to form the drought. Due to unequal distribution of rainfall during the year, the drought and flood disasters occurred frequently in the region. Studying the characteristics of summer precipitation from regional scale in Shandong region, not only has the vital significance to the evaluation of regional precipitation and the water resources situation, also provides the scientific basis for the prediction of precipitation in the future and the change trend of water environment and water resources. Based on the monthly precipitation data of 16 weather stations in Shandong region in 1961-2012 and atmospheric circulation index included The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) index, Southern Oscillation (SO)Index and Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall Test, Accumulated Difference Curve, Order Cluster Analysis and Mann-Whitney-Pettitt (MWP) methods were used in this paper to reveal the temporal-spatial variation and influential factors of summer precipitation and summer precipitation accounted for the proportion of annual precipitation in Shandong region during the last 50 years. Results obtained showed a number of observations: The summer precipitation showed a decreasing trend on the whole during the last 50 years. But the change process had obvious stages. The coast is less than the inland in the changes amplitude of summer precipitation. The coast is earlier than the inland in the stages transformation and mutation of the summer precipitation, mountains earlier than plains in the inland. The summer precipitation accounted for the proportion of annual precipitation showed an increasing trend on the whole in the coast. But the change process had no obvious stages and mutation phenomenon. However, the summer precipitation accounted for the proportion of annual precipitation showed a decreasing trend on the whole in the inland. But the change process had stages and mutation phenomenon, which are different in the mountains and the plains. According to the analysis, the summer precipitation changes in Shandong region has a significant response relationship with the East Asian summer monsoon, Southern Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation change on the same period. The differences between coastal and inland, mountains and plains are notable.

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