关键词: 海域承载力, 韦伯-费希纳定律, D-S证据合成理论, 信息扩散技术, 模糊综合评价

Abstract:

The ocean is an important strategic resource in coastal countries and regions. The coastal area has the largest population, the biggest population density, and is the most developed area in China as in other coastal countries. Bohai Sea Ring Area and the Changjiang River Delta, Zhujiang River Delta are the three economic growth poles in China coastal area. With the great growth of economy and society, the contradiction between supply and demand of land resources has become increasingly prominent, marine resources have been predatory exploited, marine environment has been seriously polluted. Carrying capacity is an important study on coordinating development of resources, environment, and economy. Marine carrying capacity is generally be defined as the capacity or limit of the harmonious development of population, environment, and socio-economic that the ocean can carry in a certain period without damaging the sustainable development of marine resource and environment, and ensuring a certain living standard. Marine carrying capacity assessment is of great significance for the sustainable exploitation of marine resources, the environment protection and the coordinated development of regional economy and society in coastal areas. In this context, evaluation on carrying capacity of Bohai Sea Ring Area is of great significance to the sustainable development of the Bohai Sea economic circle. Since marine resources system has mobility, renewability and other characteristics, marine carrying capacity has openness, dynamics and complexity, it is difficult to accurately quantify the population, environment and socio-economic development or limits that marine carrying capacity can support. But by constructing indicator system, we can measure the dynamic change trend and relative marine carrying capacity then guide the development of marine economic activities. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is based on the fuzzy mathematics principle, to analyze and evaluate the situation of the membership level of things to be judged from multiple factors. Marine carrying capacity assessment is a comprehensive evaluation issue which related to multiple factors, and there are a lot of uncertain, fuzzy factors, so it can be evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. In view of the shortage of previous studies, this article applied Weber-Fischna law to determine classification standards of assessment indexes, and used D-S evidential theory to combine the subjective factor weights and objective weights, in order to make integrated weight more reliable and accurate. Information diffusion technique was used to determine the information distribution of small sample indexes value on the domain, and then determine the degree of membership. Finally used the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to assess marine carrying capacity in the Bohai Sea Ring Area, and used Natural Breaks to express the spatial distribution. The results show that although the marine carrying capacity from 2000 to 2011 of 17 coastal cities in the Bohai Sea Ring Area had fluctuations but it had an upward trend on the whole and continuously improve. But level characteristics values are all between 1.8 and 4, which means marine carrying capacity are not high. There is an obvious regional spatial difference and peak effect in marine carrying capacity.

Key words: marine carrying capacity, Weber-Fischna law, D-S evidential theory, information diffusion technique, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation