流动人口初次流动的空间类型选择及其影响因素——基于福建省的调查研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.05.539

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用福建省近3 000名流动人口的流动史数据,采用多项分类Logistic回归分析方法,从社会性别差异视角对其初次流动的空间分布格局、空间类型选择及其影响因素进行了实证分析。研究发现,流动人口的初次流动存在着明显的空间选择集聚特征,其个体的空间类型选择不仅体现了人力资本的遴选效应和家庭决策的结果,同时社会网络、制度背景和社区环境也对其空间选择具有重要影响。此外,相对于男性流动人口,女性流动人口空间分布格局的集聚特征更为明显,且其空间类型选择更加受到家庭的羁绊和制度的约束。

关键词: 初次流动, 空间类型选择, 流动人口, 福建

Abstract:

Based on the individual-level event-history data from a random sampling questionnaire survey of 2 977 migrants in Fujian Provinces in 2009, this article examines patterns of the floating population′s spatial distribution, their choices of the spatial types of their destinations, and factors determining such choices, in their first-time migration, from a gender perspective, and using the multinomial logistic regression model. The results show that patterns of the floating population′s spatial distribution and their choices of the spatial types of their destinations in their first-time migration exhibit strong tendency of spatial clustering, and are rather close to the average spatial patterns and choices of member of the floating population at different migration stages, which have been revealed by existing studies based on aggregate migration data. In fact, such patterns and choices establish the basis for the spatial distribution and destination choices of the floating population at their later migration stages. However, the results also demonstrate that not all members of the floating population will experience a one-step migration process, and that some of them will move to other destinations, or return to the places of origin, leading to the fact that the floating population′s spatial distribution and choices of the spatial types of their destinations at later migration stages are often at variance with those in their first-time migration. The results further suggest that the floating population′s choices of the spatial types of their destinations in their first-time migration are not only the combined effects of their human capital selection mechanism and their family decisions, but also affected by other factors, including the floating population′s social networks, their community environment, and the general institutional context. It is particularly noteworthy that the characteristics of sending areas and families, and the status of the floating population′s families in the communities, which are often neglected in the existing migration research, stand out in the floating population′s choices of the spatial types of their destinations in their first-time migration. Compared to male members of the floating population, there is a stronger tendency for spatial clustering of female members of the floating population in their first-time migration, who are also more likely to reach the current destinations by a one-step process. While equally affected by human capital selection mechanism, social networks, and community environment, as with their male counterparts, the choices of the spatial types of destinations for female members of the floating population are more constrained by family- and institutional-related factors.

Key words: first-time migration, spatial choices, the floating population, Fujian

中图分类号:

F291.1

林李月, 朱宇. 流动人口初次流动的空间类型选择及其影响因素——基于福建省的调查研究[J]. 地理科学, 2014, 34(5): 539-546.

Li-yue LIN, Yu ZHU. The Choices of the Destination's Spatial Types in the Floating Population's First-time Migration and Their Determinants: Case Studies of Fujian Province[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2014, 34(5): 539-546.

图/表 7

图 1

表 1

图2

图 3

图 4

表 2

表 3

流动人口初次流动空间类型选择的多项分类Logistic模型估计结果（B值）"

	模型1：女性流动人口			模型2：男性流动人口
	省内中小城市	省内大城市	省外中小城市	省内中小城市	省内大城市	省外中小城市
初次流动年龄（30岁以上）
20岁及以下	-0.041	0.433	0.382	-0.657	-0.641	0.046
20~25岁	-0.089	0.512^*	0.123	-0.691	-0.144	0.043
25~30岁	-0.075	0.117	-0.045	-0.970^**	0.025	-0.282
初次流动前的培训情况（接受过培训）
未接受过培训	0.097	0.106	0.183	-0.475^**	-0.434	-0.033
初次流动时受教育程度（大专及以上）
小学及以下	-0.279	-1.444^***	0.716	-0.320	-1.936^***	0.204
初中	-0.415	-1.206^***	0.282	-0.664	-1.709^***	0.122
高中或中专	-0.292	-0.861^**	-0.011	-0.903	-1.563^***	-0.523
家庭抚养比	-1.310^***	-0.849^**	-0.505^*	-0.681	-0.288	-0.387
初次流动婚姻状况（未婚）
已婚	-0.090	-0.284	0.440^*	-0.530	-0.857^**	-0.169
初次流动前在家乡的经济地位（下层）
中上层	0.388	0.209	0.388	0.673	0.098	0.109
中层	0.414^**	-0.149	0.414^***	0.444^*	0.156	0.240
中下层	0.587^*	0.261	0.587^***	0.853^***	0.344	0.411^*
家庭土地拥有情况（有土地）
没有土地	0.367^**	0.463^**	0.155	0.455	0.662^**	0.149
初职的就业途径（依靠社会网络）
其他就业途径	-0.138	0.432^**	-0.606^***	-0.326	0.100	-0.596^*
初次流动形式（单独外出）
结伴外出	-0.392	0.553^***	-0.446^***	-0.529	0.461^**	-0.578^***
户口性质（非农业户口）
农业户口	0.689^**	0.724^**	0.068	0.322	0.834^*	0.520
户口所在地（乡村）
市镇	-0.239	-0.164	-0.434^**	-0.097	-0.249	-0.014
土地流转程度（没有流转）
有流转	0.041	0.412^**	-0.103	0.356	0.112	0.213
村庄到县城距离	-0.005^***	-0.003^**	-0.001	-0.002	-0.004^**	-0.001
截距	-0.624	-0.570	-0.444	0.564	0.793	-0.229
卡方值	295.786^***			147.181^***
伪R²	0.150			0.145

表 3

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变量类型	变量名称	变量定义
因变量	初次流动的空间类型	1=省内中小城市,2=省内大城市,3=省外中小城市,4=省外大城市
人力资本	初次流动年龄	1=20岁及以下,2=20-25岁,3=25-30岁,4=30岁以上
	初次流动前的培训情况	0=否,1=学过手艺等
	初次流动时受教育程度	1=小学及以下,2=初中, 3=高中/中专,4=大专及以上
家庭特征	初次流动时婚姻状况	0=已婚,1=未婚
	家庭抚养比	=(家庭人口数-家庭劳动力数) /家庭劳动力数
	初次流动前在家乡的经济地位	1=中上层,2=中层,3=中下层,4=下层
	家庭土地拥有情况	0=没有,1=有
制度因素	户口所在地	0=市镇,1=乡村
	户口性质	0=非农业户口,1=农业户口
	土地流转程度	0=无土地流转,1=有土地流转
社会网络	初次流动的形式	0=单独外出,1=结伴外出
社会网络	初职的就业途径	0=其他就业途径,1=依靠社会网络
社区环境	村庄到县城的距离	km,连续型数值变量

	男性流动人口		女性流动人口		合计
	初次流动	现状态	初次流动	现状态	初次流动	现状态
省内中小城市	17.36	15.29	17.88	18.14	17.70	17.16
省内大城市	17.55	20.71	19.87	21.75	19.08	21.40
省外中小城市	35.80	39.64	35.71	37.34	35.74	38.13
省外大城市	29.29	24.36	26.54	22.77	27.48	23.31
合计	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00