关键词: Logistic回归, 沿海经济区, 建设用地演变, 大连

Abstract:

The spatial land use changes of coastal economic zone are closely associated with the future sustainable development of the regional industries. The research chose Dalian new urban as study area due to its typical characters of coastal economic zone with highly accumulated port industries. Using TM remote sensing images and DEM spatial data over a two-decade period, the logistic regression models on the construction land changes were built with 2 000 random samples. The models were aimed to analyze the spatial variables embodied in the evolution process with focus on the composition of driving factors and involvement levels, effects and impacts of each remarkable factor. In order to reflect the spatial change mechanism comprehensively, not only natural but also social-economic, especially industrial factors were all imported into the independent variable index in the models. By extracting urban spatial changes, it was found that the construction land in Dalian new urban has expanded by nearly 30 times in 20 years. To explain such huge land changes, the regression results show that the significant variables in coastal economic zone not only contain the distance to CBD, to nearest district, villages and towns, as the finding in similar urban sprawl regressions, but also include the distance to nearest main ports, coastal lines and port industry zones with strong specific coastal attributes. The variables both on urban spatial distribution and on coastal related conditions are thus confirmed as driving factors of land use spatial changes in this coastal economic zone. The driving factors are all playing critical roles in shaping urban patterns jointly. Through the comparison between the regression models in the period of 1990-2000 and 2000-2010, it can as well known the categories and impacts of the proposed explanatory variables in different stages varied. In the first period, as a newly developing stage, the urban spatial growth was mainly promoted by inward space filling with the distance to district, villages and towns and the ports as the most important significant factors, representing obvious spatial attraction. While in the second period, the spatial pattern was formed by outward sprawl with an addition of the coastal elements (distance to ports, port industry zones and coastal lines, etc.) as determining factors. Along with the rapid development of port industries, the spatial effects of port and port industries were increasing. These findings suggest a future trend of construction land expansion in the area adjacent to port, port industry accumulation zones in the circumstances of coastal economic flourishing, and therefore in need of paying more attention on how coastal related natural, social and industrial factors change during urban planning. The regression models in the study passed through the Logistic tests and the received verification findings confirmed the effectiveness of the designed research methods. It is considered the driving factor analysis based on Logistic regression can deepen the understanding in land use changes of coastal economic zone and provide decision-making support for coastal urban planning and spatial forecasting as well. The methodology can be applied to researches of a similar nature.

Key words: Logistic regression, coastal economic zone, construction land changes, Dalian