地理科学 ›› 2014, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (6): 711-716.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.06.711

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辽宁沿海地区人海经济系统脆弱性评价

李博()   

  1. 辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁 大连116029
  • 收稿日期:2013-03-28 修回日期:2013-11-05 出版日期:2014-06-20 发布日期:2014-06-10
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:李博(1983-),女,吉林长春人,博士,讲师,主要从事区域发展和海洋经济地理研究。E-mail: libo_ok@126.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然基金青年项目(41071094)、辽宁省博士科研启动基金项目(20121077)、辽宁省教育厅一般项目(W2012102)、大连市科技局项目(2013D13ZC187)资助

Vulnerability in Human-sea Economic System of Liaoning Coastal Area in China

Bo LI()   

  1. Study Center of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian, Liaoning 116029, China
  • Received:2013-03-28 Revised:2013-11-05 Online:2014-06-20 Published:2014-06-10

摘要:

在人海关系地域系统的基础上提出了人海经济系统的概念,在此基础上对辽宁沿海地区人海经济系统进行研究。采用熵值系数法进行权重赋值,建立脆弱性与敏感性、恢复性函数关系,并对其进行评价。结果表明:① 从脆弱性结果分析来看,1996~2009年辽宁沿海地区人海经济系统脆弱性逐年降低,并从极强脆弱型发展为弱脆弱型;② 1996~2009年敏感性指数呈现多个“倒U”型连续波动;③ 1996~2009年,恢复性指数呈现逐年增长的趋势。海洋产业增加值逐年增加,海洋油气产业发展出现波动性的变化,海洋捕捞产量得到了一定程度的控制,海洋产业结构进行了一定程度上的调整,为加快新兴产业发展起到了重要的作用。

关键词: 人海经济系统, 脆弱性, 函数模型法, 熵权系数法, 辽宁沿海地区

Abstract:

Vulnerability of human-sea system is a research frontier in regional sustainable development. Vulnerability analysis is not only an effective tool in the realms of global environmental change and sustainability science, but also provides a new paradigm for the study of interaction mechanisms and processes of coupled human-land system. Studies carry out in human-sea system are of significance to not only the enrichment of the theories of human-land system, but also marine sustainable development. Based on human-sea system theory, combined with the theory of geography, economics and oceanography, the vulnerability framework to search the vulnerability of human-sea economic system is the focus in sustainable development of global marine, key process and dynamical mechanism. Vulnerability is considered as functional relationships between sensitivity and coping ability, this article, by constructing a vulnerability assessment model of entropy theory and function model, carries out a vulnerability research of the human-sea economic system in Liaoning regional area. Human-sea economic system studies the structure characteristics and rules of evolution in geographical space within the scope of the marine industry, and it contains a combination of various factors in sea and land which includes the regional, comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable features. It shows that: 1) the vulnerability of Liaoning coastal area in human-sea economic system declined year by year from 1996 to 2009, and from the strong vulnerability to weak one. 2) from the sensitive indexes, it showed a trend of “inverted U”. The junctions of the "inverted U" happened in 1999, 2001, 2004, and in 2006. Since 2006, the proportion of ocean GDP declined year by year. 3) from the coping ability indexes, it showed the steady grow. The added value of Marine industry increased year by year, offshore oil and gas industry development change by volatility, and marine fishing production get control in degree. In addition, the structure of Marine industry had some adjustment, and sped up the development of new industry. In the development of marine industry, marine chemical products production, shipbuilding and transportation are all important. So we can reduce the vulnerability of human-sea economic system from these aspects. Human-sea system includes three subsystems that are human-sea resources environment subsystem, human-sea economic subsystem and human-sea society subsystem. The coupling analysis of these three subsystems is also important. Then it obtains the vulnerability characteristics and the countermeasures of sustainable development, and it is another research direction in the future.

Key words: human-sea economic system, vulnerability, function model method, entropy weight coefficient method, Liaoning coastal area

中图分类号: 

  • K902