环境管制对珠江三角洲污染产业空间分布的影响研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.06.717

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以珠江三角洲为研究对象,在分析2000~2010年其污染产业空间分布特征的基础上,采用面板数据的计量模型进行实证研究。首先通过模型分析发现各环境管制因子中工业SO₂排放量的管制程度显著影响污染产业的空间分布;然后再将此环境管制因子运用到分行业模型中,发现非金属制品业、水电煤气生产业、造纸及纸制品业等产业分布与宽松的环境管制相关,化学工业和黑色金属行业则与环境管制无关。最后,认为环境管制已成为影响中国污染产业空间分布的重要因素,在中国环境管制手段以“命令控制型”为主和地方分权的背景下,不同的环境管制手段将对该手段实施后影响程度大的污染行业的空间分布产生影响。

关键词: 环境管制, 空间分布, 污染产业, 珠江三角洲

Abstract:

In this article, we focus on the spatial distribution of pollution industries in the Pearl River Delta (hereinafter referred to as PRD) by using the panel data during the period of 2000-2010. Firstly, the temporal and spatial pattern of pollution industries was analyzed. The speed of pollution industry development shows as an “S” shape. Nonmetallic industrial enterprises, among others, have dramatically relocated to the non-PRD area from the PRD area. Within the PRD area, the spatial pattern of pollution industries have shifted, with Foshan and Guangzhou entering the first-tier while Shenzhen and Dongguan in the second. For different types of pollution industries, the spatial-temporal dynamics is more complex and intricate. Panel data model is further used to find out whether environmental regulation is related to the spatial distribution of pollution industries, and if so, which kind of environmental regulation is at work. According to Weber's industrial location theory, the model is built with the proportion of the pollution industries output to those in Guangdong Province as the dependent variable, and the independent variables consider factors that influence the spatial distribution of the pollution industries, such as capital, wage rate, transportation, agglomeration and environmental regulation. Among others, the variable of environmental regulation is the focal one for our investigation, the proxy of which is four different indicators, namely the ratio of sulfur dioxide emissions to the provincial average value, the ratio of industrial waste water to the provincial average value, the utilization rate of solid waste, and the year of getting the award for the model city for environmental protection. The results show that higher level of sulfur dioxide emissions, which indicates looser regulative control on air pollution, boosts the agglomeration of pollution industries, while the other variables for environmental regulation do not demonstrate significant impact. In what follows, we bring the ratio of sulfur dioxide emissions to the average as the single variable for environmental regulation into the sector-specific panel data model, and discovers that the spatial distribution of pollution industry sector such as nonmetallic industry, water and electricity gas industry and paper-making industry are significantly influenced by environmental regulation, while other industries such as ferrous metal industry and chemical industry are unaffected by the environmental regulation. This result shows that China's energy saving and emission reduction policy which includes the sulfur dioxide emission reduction targets do work for the heavily air-polluting industries. Finally, the article concludes with the following two points concerning the mechanism of environmental regulations for the location of pollution industries. 1) Environmental regulation has been an important location factor in China, inasmuch as the local governments hope to upgrade the local industries with the help of environmental regulations under the context of fiscal decentralization. 2) The impact of environmental regulations on industry location depends not only on the industry character, but in the Chinese context also on the regulative means aimed for specific environmental goals.

Key words: environmental regulation, spatial distribution, pollution industries, the Pearl River Delta

中图分类号:

K902

沈静, 向澄, 符文颖. 环境管制对珠江三角洲污染产业空间分布的影响研究[J]. 地理科学, 2014, 34(6): 717-724.

Jing SHEN, Cheng XIANG, Wen-ying FU. The Impact of Environmental Regulation on the Spatial Distribution of Pollution Industries in the Pearl River Delta[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2014, 34(6): 717-724.

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变量		（1）	（2）	（3）	（4）	（5）
常数项		-3.75^***（-2.98）	-3.56^***（-2.75）	-3.30^***（-2.63）	-3.01^**(-2.26)	-4.34^***(-3.13)
ln(FDI_it)		-0.00（-0.40）	-0.00（-0.07）	-2.56（-0.00）	-0.00（-0.15）	-0.01(-0.52)
ln(SOP_it)		0.17^**（2.63）	0.14^**（2.14）	0.14^**（2.24）	0.13^**（2.05）	0.18^**(2.76)
ln(WAGE_it)		0.13（1.07）	0.11（0.85）	-0.03（-0.18）	0.06（0.49）	0.09(0.60)
ln(ROAD_it)		0.01（0.10）	-0.02（-0.15）	0.03（0.28）	0.01（0.08）	0.01(0.08)
ln(AGG_it)		0.32^***（3.17）	0.26^**（2.52）	0.33^***（3.18）	0.29^**（2.59）	0.32^***(2.71)
ln(ER_it)	ER=SO₂的比值	0.54^**（2.27）				0.48^**(2.01)
	ER=废水的比值		-0.12（-1.48）			-0.10(-1.18)
	ER=固废利用率			0.27（1.37）		0.21(1.11)
	ER=环保模范城称号				-0.01（-0.11）	0.01(0.19)
交叉项(ln(AGG_it)ln(ER_it*))		0.15^**（2.01）	-0.03（-1.37）	-0.02（-1.07）	-0.02（-0.83）	0.13（1.57）
调整的R²		0.943	0.941	0.941	0.939	0.943
固定效应检验的F值		109.53^***	105.64^***	105.24^***	102.81^***	94.73^***

变量	电力煤气和水的供应	化学工业	非金属	有色金属	造纸及纸品	黑色金属
常数项	-2.37^*(-1.69)	-3.63^*(-1.67)	-1.79-1.58	-13.47^***(-2.99)	-0.13(-0.15)	-8.11^*(-1.87)
ln(FDI_it)	-0.01（-0.75）	-0.01（-0.50）	0.01（1.58）	-0.00（-0.13）	0.01（1.04）	-0.02（-0.76）
ln(SOP_it)	0.02（0.31）	0.49^***（4.39）	-0.10^*（-1.76）	0.08（0.34）	-0.09^*（-1.95）	0.23（1.05）
ln(WAGE_it)	0.01（0.08）	-0.02（-0.09）	0.12（1.04）	1.01^**（2.24）	0.06（0.66）	0.32（0.74）
ln(ROAD_it)	0.39^*（3.04）	-0.01（-0.03）	-0.13（-1.20）	0.09（0.21）	-0.03（-0.312）	-0.34（-0.85）
ln(AGG_it)	0.09（0.83）	0.47^***（2.71）	0.58^***（6.22）	-0.23（-0.64）	0.96^***（13.27）	-0.34（-0.98）
ln(ER_it)	0.74^***（2.85）	0.08（0.19）	0.65^***（2.95）	1.59^*（1.88）	0.37^**（2.19）	0.66（00.82）
交叉项(ln(AGG_it)ln(ER_it*))	0.22^**（2.51）	-0.06（-0.41）	0.19^**（2.61）	0.60^**（2.15）	0.17^***（3.06）	0.29（1.09）
调整的R²	0.949	0.839	0.963	0.759	0.975	0.781
固定效应检验的F值	123.42^***	34.99^***	172.34^***	21.54^***	263.49^***	23.76^***