地理科学 ›› 2014, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (7): 780-787.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.07.780

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中国城市新移民的定居意愿及其影响机制

刘于琪1,2(), 刘晔3, 李志刚1()   

  1. 1.中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东 广州 510275
    2.伦敦大学学院巴特雷特建筑环境学院城市规划系,英国 伦敦 WC1E6BT
    3.香港中文大学地理与资源管理学系,香港 999077
  • 收稿日期:2013-01-05 修回日期:2013-06-05 出版日期:2014-07-10 发布日期:2014-07-10
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:刘于琪(1988-),女,广东中山人,博士研究生,主要从事城市社会地理研究。E-mail: yuqi.liu.13@ucl.ac.uk

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目(41271163)、教育部“新世纪人才”支持项目、中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金资助、ESRC/DFID 资助项目(RES-167-25-0448)、教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(11JJD840015)、教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目资助(11JZD028)、同济大学“高密度人居环境生态与节能教育部重点实验室”项目资助

Settlement Intention of New Migrants in China's Large Cities: Patterns and Determinants

Yu-qi LIU1,2(), Ye LIU3, Zhi-gang LI1()   

  1. 1. School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510275, China
    2. Bartlett School of Planning, University College, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom
    3. Department of Geography and Resource Management, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China
  • Received:2013-01-05 Revised:2013-06-05 Online:2014-07-10 Published:2014-07-10

摘要:

基于广州、东莞、沈阳、成都、杭州、郑州市所获问卷数据,采用描述性统计和Logistic回归模型,探讨中国城市新移民的定居意愿及其影响因素。研究表明,城市新移民总体上呈现较强的定居意愿,其中投资型新移民的定居意愿最强,智力型新移民次之,劳力型新移民最弱。影响新移民定居意愿的主要因素包括户籍因素、社会网络、社会认同、生活满意度和地域差异。与本地人交往和社会认同是影响智力型新移民定居意愿的决定性因素;职业、产权、本地社会资本、社会认同和地域差异是影响劳力型新移民定居意愿的主要因素;就投资型新移民而言,影响其定居意愿的主要因素为人力资本、本地社会资本、户籍状况及其所在的城市。地方政府应根据新移民所属的类型,有针对性地制定社会与空间政策,为新移民提供更为多元化的城市融合路径。

关键词: 新移民, 定居意愿, Logistic回归分析

Abstract:

Against the background of globalization, urbanization, and the relaxation of household registration system, China's large cities have witnessed massive inflows of new migrants since the start of the new millennium. The integration of new migrants into destination cities hinges on their ability to and inclination to settle down in the destination. New migrants' settlement intention has drawn extensive attention from policy-makers and the media, but such topic remains under-researched in China's migration literature. Previous studies on migrants' settlement intention have focused merely on poorly educated rural migrant workers, devoting insufficient attention to the increasing diversification of new migrants' socio-economic status in the Chinese context. Based on a questionnaire survey conducted in six cities, this article aims to investigate patterns and determinants of new migrants' settlement intention in China, with a particular focus on the heterogeneity of migrants. Our descriptive results show that new migrants generally have rather strong intention to settle down in destination cities, and that 58.8% of them intend to live in the destination city permanently. However, their intention to settle down may not be translated into actions due to the lack of capabilities of settling down. Results from logistic regression models indicate that female, well-educated, high-income, established migrants and migrants whose migration destinations are located in the central and western regions and who have local hukou status, abundant local social capital, strong local identities, and high life satisfaction have stronger intention to settle down in the destination city, and that income levels, hukou status, social networks, identities, and places of residence play a dominant role in this regard. We further divided new migrants into 3 cohorts: skilled migrants who have attained a university degree or college diploma, labor migrants with high school education or below, and business migrants who run small business such as restaurants, factories, and workshops and found that determinants of migrants' settlement intention vary across different migrant cohorts. Specifically, business migrants have the strongest intention, followed by skilled migrants and labor migrants. Skilled migrants' intention to stay permanently in the destination city is determined by their social linkages with local residents and their sense of belonging to the destination city, while that of labor migrants is jointly affected by their occupation, property status, social capital, identities, and places of residence. With regard to business migrants, human capital, social capital, household registration status, and places of residence play a dominant role in shaping their settlement intention. Our findings suggest that China's new migrants become increasingly heterogeneous in terms of the settlement intention, and that they integrate into the host urban society through different paths. Therefore, it is necessary for governments at all scales to enact different policies designed for particular migrant cohorts.

Key words: second generation migrants, settlement intention, logistic regression analysis

中图分类号: 

  • K901.3