洮河流域土地利用/土地覆被变化及其驱动机制研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.07.848

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

系统收集和整理1970s后期至2000s洮河流域土地利用/土地覆被、水文气象和经济社会发展数据,采用综合利用指数、转移矩阵、动态度、相关性和主成分分析方法及多元线性回归方法,得到结果表明,过去30 a,洮河流域总体表现为林、草面积减少、耕地面积增加、土地开发利用程度进一步提升。驱动因子相关性及主成分分析表明,洮河流域LULCC受“区域经济+农耕因素+城镇化和气候”3个主成分大类的交互影响和驱动;基于此构建的LULCC多元回归驱动模式,在率定期和验证期精度良好,能够反映洮河流域经济社会发展及区域气候对LULCC的驱动和影响。

关键词: 土地利用/土地覆被变化, 驱动机制, 洮河流域

Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to detect the land use and land cover change (LULCC) in Taohe River Basin (TRB) from 1980s to the 2000s and explore its main driving forces. We first build a database of the LULCC by collecting and reorganizing the land use and land cover maps and images, along with data from hydrometeorologic and socio-economic surveys. The methods that we adopt for estimating the LULCC include the comprehensive utilization index, the transition matrix, and the dynamic index. Correlation analysis and principal components analysis (PCA) are then used for identifying the socioeconomic driving factors of the LULCC before the driving mechanisms are determined through fitting the Multiple Linear Regression Expressions (MLREs) to every land use type. It is found that forestland and grassland decreased while cultivated land increased over the past 30 years, despite the obvious heterogeneities in time and space. Temporally, cultivated land and forestland experienced a decline while grassland gained during 1980 s-1990 s; thereafter, cultivated land increased at the expense of forestland and grassland. Spatially, forestland and grassland in the upper and middle reaches of the TRB reduced but cultivated land grew; in the lower reaches, opposite trends took place. Overall, change in cultivated land was the most significant of all land-use types, and both deforestation and afforestation went on simultaneously. Correlation analysis and PCA show that the LULCC in the TRB were driven mostly by the regional economic development, and that the main types of land use-cultivated land, forestland, and grassland-were also affected by agricultural growth, featuring farming population and area expansion. The small categories of land uses-built-up land and water body were influenced by a combined set of "regional economy + farming factors + urbanization and climate" driving mechanism. Accordingly, the MLREs were fitted with satisfactory accuracies for both calibration and validation, suggesting a satisfactory capability to capture the LULCC driven by the socio-economic requirements and regional climate of the TRB.

Key words: LULCC, driving mechanism, the Taohe River Basin

中图分类号:

F301.24

李常斌, 杨林山, 杨文瑾, 王帅兵. 洮河流域土地利用/土地覆被变化及其驱动机制研究[J]. 地理科学, 2014, 34(7): 848-855.

Chang-bin LI, Lin-shan YANG, Wen-jin YANG, Shuai-bing WANG. Land Use and Land Cover Change in Taohe River Basin and Its Driving Forces[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2014, 34(7): 848-855.

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参考文献 26

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数据时间	数据来源	数据格式	分辨率
1970 s后期	LandSat_MSS	Image	60 m
1985年	马里兰大学	Tiff	1 000 m
1996年	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所	Polygon	100 m
1990 s中期	LandSat5_TM	Image	30 m
2000年	欧洲全球覆被变化联合研究中心	Tiff	1 000 m
2005年	欧洲航天局	Tiff	300 m
2000 s后期	LandSat7_TM	Image	30 m

地类分级	未利用土地	林地、草地、湿地	农业用地	居民点、工矿用地
分级指数	1	2	3	4
土地利用	未利用土地	林地、草地、水域	耕地	建设用地

地理-生态区间	1980s	1990s	2000s
上游草原畜牧区	199	199	200
上游牧林农混合区	213	213	216
中游山地森林区	217	216	221
下游黄土农耕区	233	233	231

时期	地类	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用土地
	1990 s
1980s	耕地	-	248	380	5	10	19
	林地	269	-	302	10	12	39
	草地	229	320	-	7	13	153
	水域	3	5	4	-	2	1
	建设用地	7	7	13	3	-	5
	未利用土地	13	41	140	4	1	-
	2000 s
1990s	耕地	-	112	197	19	19	16
	林地	282	-	160	13	18	26
	草地	275	268	-	5	17	298
	水域	6	7	21	-	1	9
	建设用地	7	6	6	1	-	3
	未利用土地	13	28	284	5	1	-

驱动因素	主成分荷载系数
驱动因素	1	2	3
总人口（万人）	0.52	0.84	-0.12
城镇化率（%）	-0.13	-0.32	0.84
农业总产值（万元）	0.94	0.32	-0.05
林业总产值（万元）	0.81	0.48	-0.13
牧业总产值（万元）	0.94	0.32	0.06
渔业总产值（万元）	0.92	0.34	-0.11
第二产业产值（万元）	0.96	0.26	-0.04
第三产业产值（万元）	0.95	0.17	0.04
耕地面积（km²）	0.35	0.92	-0.13
有效灌溉面积（km²）	0.41	0.87	-0.18
造林面积（km²）	0.75	0.59	-0.14
牲畜存栏数（头）	0.23	0.67	0.65
气温（℃）	0.21	0.15	-0.93
降水（mm）	0.05	0.03	0.39